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43 sats \ 27 replies \ @SimpleStacker 24 Sep \ on: Our Economy Has Never Needed an "Elastic" Currency econ
This is definitely one of the hangups that many economists have with Bitcoin. Unfortunately, I feel unequipped to properly answer these objections since my knowledge of both monetary theory and monetary history is quite weak
After reading Mises' argument for why any quantity of a sufficiently divisible currency will be sufficient to facilitate trade, the arguments for why monetary expansion is necessary come off as very convoluted and unconvincing.
It's important to remember that there's no such thing as pure money expansion. It enters the economy somewhere and bids up some prices more than others, making any monetary expansion inherently distortionary.
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I think a good way to put it would be to say
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fiat standard gives more flexibility to respond to shocks in the short term, but creates incentive problems that can lead to worse ex ante outcomes
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commodity money has less flexibility to respond to short term shocks, but has a better incentive structure which could lead to better outcomes in the long run
So it can be pitched as a sort of commitment / time consistency problem
Maybe monetary economists already knew this and I'm just regurgitating first year grad school stuff haha
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There might be people who would put it that way. I think the first point needs to be amended with something like "...but no one has sufficient information to respond to shocks in a beneficial way."
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Unless the objective is to pretend you're doing something in response to political pressure, (but what you're really doing is handing out favors to the wealthy), and subsequently to be fellated for your brilliance in the corporate media
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Is that what a benevolent social planner would do, though?
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Indeed, our current benevolent social planners verify their own benevolence by the amount of fellating by Paul Krugman they receive.
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Imagine writing out that objective function
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It would make for an entertaining PhD thesis, at the very least
The divisibility aspect is also interesting, since one can see how gold coins or even bank notes already in circulation can cause divisibility problems, but bitcoin in circulation suffers from none of those drawbacks
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The main argument I hear is that fiat stimulates innovation, because businesses can borrow it cheaply, and on a Bitcoin standard they wouldn't be able to borrow. They say businesses need to be able to borrow money cheaply and fail.
I don't quite see why for there to be innovation, entrepreneurs who call themselves innovative need the right to 'steal' from other parts of the economy.
It's effectively a call to subsidize some things at the cost of others.
Fiat defenders also bring up historical correlation between increases in gold supply and periods of economic growth. I don't know how to respond to that.
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Fiat enables almost endless issuance of capital which can be used to further invest in and advance an economies productive potential.
While there are problems inherent with this- including the need to ensure fiat debt capital is only advanced toward purposes that are likely to be productive and therefore enhance the overall wealth creation of the economy, it is a feature of debt leverage and capital allocation that can theoretically outpace a fixed hard currency such as gold or Bitcoin.
For fiat money to operate successfully you need sufficiently disciplined and honest government and bankers in place to operate such a fiat debt leverage economic model- where those exist is can and demonstrably has worked well historically- where those are absent as in the west today, it can work to cause much damage.
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For fiat money to operate successfully you need sufficiently disciplined and honest government and bankers in place to operate such a fiat debt leverage economic model- where those exist is can and demonstrably has worked well historically- where those are absent as in the west today, it can work to cause much damage.
You also need either for Bitcoin to not exist, or people not to want to buy it.
Because fiat printing can't work when there is something to dump it for and demand as payment.
Currently there are enough people not wanting to buy bitcoin, but that's not going to last forever.
Conclusion: fiat is unsustainable.
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Bitcoin does provide some healthy competition for the fiat monetary monopoly but only where fiat debt capital issuance is being misused and abused as it is in the west today...and only if Bitcoin is a practical MoE, which it is not in almost all economies because it is either banned for use as a MoE (in 70% of the world) or allowed but taxed heavily in the other 30% where MoE use is not explicitly banned.
The fiat operators have effectively captured and controlled Bitcoin use limiting it to a relatively harmless role and narrative as a speculative commodity, KYCed and taxed, while MoE use has been either outright banned, or made so inconvenient it is not used as a MoE except by a small minority who are prepared to ignore tax recording and reporting requirements- like us, zapping, on SNs.
Where fiat debt based capital issuance is applied with discipline and focus it can enable more rapid and vigorous economic growth providing the host economy with a competitive advantage over other economies where such discipline is not applied.
This is part of the reason that China has won the trade war and enjoys annual trade surpluses over $1T while western governments and economies have suffered chronic trade and fiscal deficits and now are at risk of losing their legacy hegemony over the global monetary system.
The wealth of nations is considerably influenced by the quality of their governments.
In the west governments have been captured by parasitic rentseeking bankers who misuse fiat issuance for their own enrichment but who are ultimately undermining the wealth of most other participants in their economies.
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Bitcoin does provide some healthy competition for the fiat monetary monopoly but only where fiat debt capital issuance is being misused and abused
Bitcoin provides unbeatable competition for fiat if it's a practical SoV (MoE is not relevant here) and fiat doesn't have a fixed supply, which it never will.
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MoE dominance is where Fiat gains its power.
Think about SWIFT for example.
Or the citizens of any nation who must use the currency ordained by their government.
SoV is provided by many speculative assets of which Bitcoin is but one. Bitcoin being held as a SoV is not in real competition with fiat money as long as it is not used as a MoE.
70% of the world has banned MoE use of Bitcoin- nearly all of the remaining 30% has taxed its use a sa speculative commodity making MoE use impracticable due to the onerous tax recording and payment obligations that result.
Legal MoE use of Bitcoin has been banned or highly obstructed in virtually all nations so slyly you apparently didn't notice!
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SWIFT is not an MoE use case, it's remittances and Bitcoin can and does compete with that already.
I brought up SoV, because that's what will lead to the hyperinflation and ultimately destruction of fiat.
Fiat printing doesn't work when there is no incentive to hold fiat.
Bitcoin will become more of an MoE when people start asking to be paid in BTC (i.e. when Thiers' law kicks in). By that time, the state will be so weak, taxing imaginary "capital gains" will be unenforceable.
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SWIFT is absolutely a MoE use case- it gives the US arguably more cost effective power and leverage than direct military.
If you do not hold USD in your central bank you cannot access SWIFT and cannot make trade payments to the majority of global markets.
Use of BTC for MoE is outright banned in 70% of the global markets.
SWIFT is absolutely demonstrative of the power of MoE dominance...even though Chinas alternatives CIPS and mBridge are increasingly providing an alternative.
Bitcoin is not being used for any significant trade payments...it is increasingly confined to use as a speculative commodity.
Many speculative commodities have, can and do run alongside fiat with no real problem for fiat as long as they are not being used for MoE to any significant extent.
You seem unable to understand the extent to which BTC MoE has been slyly but successfully obstructed if not outright banned, globally. The fiat powers are jealously guarding and preserving their hegemony...hegemony which is based upon MoE dominance if not monopoly.
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it is a feature of debt leverage and capital allocation that can theoretically outpace a fixed hard currency such as gold or Bitcoin
"Capital allocation" meaning taking capital away from working people and giving it to the government. A political regime can't outperform the market because it doesn't understand the market, and it doesn't care about the return on investment anyway because it doesn't share the same interests as the market. That dynamic isn't unique to the West.
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I would disagree with that...with provisos.
Individuals/private investors are primarily self seeking for their own gain.
A government with sufficient honesty and discipline can invest or direct captial to be invested in infrastructure and productive assets (including citizens skills and R&D) with a broader more strategic and longer term vision.
This is what the CCP in China has done in multiple areas.
Fpr example they use fiat capital issuance to build massive power generation projects such as the The Gorges on the Yangtze river or coal or gas or nuclear power plants- this new power generation is supplied and available to any private enterprise who can use it and in the past was often used by Bitcoin miners. Anyway by supplying power to an regional economy it stimulates productive potential and multiple subsidiary economic development and investment. This has been a major prong to economic development in China in the last 4 decades and has delivered mostly good results. Only a government has the mandate and ability to push through these projects and if done well they unleash huge latent potential that might otherwise have remained dormant.
The west used to do this sort of economic stimulus but since neoliberal voodoo economics, or should I say since the bankers came to largely own western governments, this does not happen much.
Private enterprise works well in a competitive market but in many cases investment in and development of basic economic infrastructure and supply chains requires a broader more strategic viewpoint- which governments that are motivated can provide and fiat capital issuance can help fund such developments without being an undue burden upon the citizens whose currency has been debased, as over the medium- long term, such projects when done well can deliver a stronger more prosperous economy than a solely private capital funded one could.
Chinese are now building an ever bigger hydro project several magnitudes bigger than the three gorges, just above India and Bangladesh...
Another example is the power efficiency drive initiated and pushed by the CCP since the early 2000s- it was simply about acknowledging Chinas energy deficit (dependence on imported fossil fuels) and the logic of improving energy efficiency across the economy for producers and consumers- the result- China leads the world in production and use of Solar power, Wind Power, LED lighting, EVs, Lithium Batteries and high speed electrified bullet trains. All this increases the Chinese economies energy efficiency and has also delivered billions in receipts from exports.
You might argue private enterprise could do the same- but No private enterprise does not have the ability or motive to think and act in the best long term interests of the national economy- only a good honest government does.
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You might argue private enterprise could do the same- but No private enterprise does not have the ability or motive to think and act in the best long term interests of the national economy- only a good honest government does.
Private enterprise can only make money if they provide something of value in exchange. The government gets paid regardless. Why would you expect the government to act more closely in alignment with the national interest? They have no incentive to care.
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Why would you expect the government to act more closely in alignment with the national interest?
Very good question!
The theory is that in democracies they need to show they are in order to get re elected- but then the elites figured out they could own both major parties in most democracies and here we are!
Ruled by parasitic shadow bankers.
Most citizens have become apathetic and antagonistic toward meaningful participation in democracy because the elites have rigged it.
Infrastructures and productive sectors emaciated by chronic debt slavery and lack of investment because most fiat debt issuance has been squandered on non productive speculative asset price pumping.
However at the same time more or less, rather ironically, the CCP emerged from the turmoil of Maos era where it was regaining its self determination after the hundred years of humiliation following the Opium Wars and so in the 1980s onward under Deng adapted its economic theory to allow more of the principles of free enterprise to operate in its favour, while retaining strong control over the strategic direction of development.
And while China is a one party state the CCP was and is well aware that if it does not deliver credible economic results to its a good majority of its citizens it will probably suffer the fate of brutal and bloody removal.
Heavens Mandate gives the CCP plenty of incentive, and so the pragmatic mercantile Chinese mixed economy is employing fiat capital issuance and allocation far superior to the crony capitalism of the decadent west.
China has thus won the trade war and dominates global markets in most manufactured goods and commodities.
The CCP still directs capital whereas in the west Capital (banks) now direct your government.
Get it yet?
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Well if citizens are holding the CCP at gunpoint to scare them into acting in the national interest, then it isn't too much different from America's system, except that the CCP has a lot more leeway in the scope and speed of decisions it can make. But in either case there's a transfer of power from individuals to a central government that I'm still not seeing the justification for.
If I go out and wash someone's car, and they pay me 20,000 satoshis, why do I get a letter from some rando on the other side of the country demanding I pay him 1,000 satoshis? Who cares what his cause is? Anyone can send me threats, but I did the work. No one else should be getting paid for work that I did, no matter what they plan to spend it on. If they have an investment idea, but I don't like it, they shouldn't be able to force me to join.
In other words, you can't justify rape by promising that it will be enjoyable in the long run. You're saying the investments are worth it, and in a 變態 kind of way I can visualize how the investment might be a net positive, but my point is that government actions aren't consensual.
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If I go out and wash someone's car, and they pay me 20,000 satoshis, why do I get a letter from some rando on the other side of the country demanding I pay him 1,000 satoshis?
Assuming you mean the random is the tax department the answer would be that taxes fund governments and governments determine the wealth of nations. If you wash someones car in a nation with a weak government and history of weak and corrupt government chances are you will receive less for washing someones car.
'Well if citizens are holding the CCP at gunpoint to scare them into acting in the national interest, then it isn't too much different from America's system'
The difference between the Chinese government and western 'liberal democracies' for example the US system, is that in western democracies an administration can fail to deliver for most citizens and simply gets voted out and onto their cushy retirement speaking tours and jobs with the corporate sponsors who owned them all along.
In China all the politburo know that their position wealth and privilege can last a long time- but only if they continue to provide good economic results- so they do...or die!
Western governments have allowed the private bankers, who own them, to MISUSE fiat debt leveraged capital issuance and allocation- squandering our collective liquid capital and undermining our past present and future.
As long as most westerners don't wake up to how this has happened things will not be likely to improve.
While Bitcoin does provide a small amount of relief by giving us an alternative SoV it has largely been captured and controlled by the sly bankers who have allowed it as a speculative KYCed and taxed commodity but largely blocked it as a MoE.
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In China all the politburo know that their position wealth and privilege can last a long time- but only if they continue to provide good economic results- so they do...or die!
There is no good result from stealing money. The fact that BTC outperforms the Yuan and USD is 天命.