I actually have a similar take. The diminishing returns combined with retail hardware advances are going to make it that in 2030 your average home computer will run a model that more or less performs similar to todays frontier models.

We've seen this same thing constantly. There was a time when an iPhone 4 could do a tremendous amount more than an iPhone 1....but that hasn't been true for a long time. Does the average phone user really need anything more advanced than say a iPhone 9? Text, Photos, Emails, Maps, etc....basically its all become a "solved problem".

I think the same is going to happen in AI. At a certain point, the day-to-day use cases are going to be solved by open source models running on commodity hardware.