The US market is on a knife's edge: record debt, extreme leverage, and an explosion in options!

These three signs have preceded virtually every major collapse in recent decades.

Total U.S. debt reached $98.8 trillion—324% of GDP.

The federal government alone accounts for $37.5 trillion, or 123% of GDP. Businesses and households also carry debts close to 140% of GDP combined.

There has never been such widespread exposure.

Margin debt rose by US$67 billion in September alone.

Over the past five months, the increase is 39%.

Investors are expanding positions with borrowed money at the same pace as in 2021, just before the peak.

This type of movement usually anticipates large declines in the S&P.

This was the case during the 2000 bubble, the 2008 crisis, the 2018 selloff, and the 2022 bear market.

The sequence is always similar: leverage increases too much, the market corrects, and forced sales accelerate the decline.

The options market has (again) broken all records.

Total volume recently hit 109 million contracts per day, the highest in history.

This reflects a market operating on an all-or-nothing basis.

Retail options volume has doubled in the last year.

Individuals are trading short, cheap, and volatile contracts at unprecedented levels.

Increased risk is concentrated at the most sensitive end of the chain.

Buying the deep is no longer enough.

This is what the market will look like in October 2025:

• Public and private debt at all-time highs • Equity leverage breaking records • Options trading on a historic scale • Retailers concentrating on short-term assets • Gold soaring and the dollar collapsing