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Current Status How bad is the impasse that the Senate is dealing with in DC you might wounder? Well it is wild to put it lightly and while the Senate continues to hold hearings and markups for additional legislation, some of which is bipartisan, you get the sense now that tension is rising in the Senate and spilling over into these other areas not connected to government funding. Its very interesting to see some of the Democratic messaging for this current situation because it does not match up well with well the facts.
One of the biggest talking points for the Democrats has been "you have the House, the Senate, and the Presidency you should be able to pass a budget." Yet they also know that is just well a lie because when Senate Republicans established the Senate Rules this year they kept the long held Rule of the filibuster in place. Other comments like this is all Republican don't align with the simple fact that in the House one Democrat did vote in favor for the clean CR and in the Senate there have been 3 who have voted in favor for it.
Something in the Senate that you do not really see in the House is the so called bipartisan Senate "gang" this is made up of a group of lawmakers from both sides of the aisle who have in recent years played a critical role in breaking stalemates like this. In 2018 the gang was responsible for ending the 2018/2019 partial government shutdown and literally broke out a talking stick to reach a solution. However, in recent years many of the key players in the gang have retired. Republican Senators Rob Portman and Mitt Romney have left and from the Democratic side Joe Machin and Kyrsten Sinema have also retired.
As someone who works on the House side our Senate Floor camera shot can sometimes catch this group meeting and it is something I have been paying attention to. On the Republican side Markwayne Mullin has seemed to have taken a leading role with Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski playing a supporting role as a long time member. On the Democratic side Colorado Senator Chris Coons has been a leading figure with retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen from New Hampshire also playing a role.
Sadly, the Senate gang has had one message for those of us in DC. If you think we are going to be able to end the shutdown don't count on it.
New Option For the last couple Congresses certain Members from both parties have started to call for the end of the filibuster. If you do not know the filibuster is a political tactic used in the Senate that delays or prevents a vote on legislation. To "break" the filibuster requires 60 votes and the reasoning for the creation of this was simple. It allowed the minority party to be able to check the power of the majority party. The last time either party had a filibuster proof majority was 1979 due to 60 votes typically requiring a handful of minority party members to cross over and sign on.
Getting rid of the filibuster though while it would benefit the current party in power it can also turn around a bite them. There in an option called the "nuclear option" which allows the Senate to override a standing rule by a simple majority bypassing the 60 vote rule. Given the significance of this it has only been used twice. Once in 2013 by then Senate Leader Harry Reid (Democrat) and once again in 2017 by Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (Republican). With the future consequences of evoking this option Republican Senators have been against using it for now, though it has been rumored to have been discussed, and instead are working on another idea.
This morning it came out that Senate Republicans had begun holding informal discussions about creating a carve out for reopening the government. The goal of this carve-out is to ensure that the 60 vote threshold remains intact but there are is some sort of way to allow a majority to vote to reopen the government. How that looks and what sort of precedence it sets will be a monumental development for the Senate. It should be noted that some of the strongest supporters of the filibuster on the Republican side are some of the ones going on the record now saying ideas need to be explored. This includes Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Ron Johnson from Wisconsin, Josh Hawley of Missouri, and Susan Collins of Maine. I am sure we will begin to hear more about what the future holds with these ideas/options in the coming days.
CNBC Interview This Morning As I am writing this on CNBC Sen. Shaheen, a retiring Democrat from New Hampshire, was asked a rather simple question by Joe Kernen that caused her to get visibly irritated. In the future would she "not criticize Republicans if they shut down the government over something they did not like." While she tried to spin up leaders talking to each other and wiggle her way out of it Joe kept the pressure on her and she eventually got to the point of saying she blames both parties and will "continue to call it like I see it."
Becky Quick asked a follow-up that was pretty hard pressed as well. What is the solution/what are you going to do if the government isn't reopened by the end of the month and SNAP benefits run out of money. Again Sen. Shaheen did not have an answer saying she hopes they get funded because people depend on them.... I dont wanna sound like a smart ass but ya know... if you pass the funding bill.... guess what.... they would be funded but ya know what do I a lowly House Staffer know about how funding the government works.
Sorry, this is basic MSM tier analysis that ignores the fact it's entirely scripted theater. There are no democrats or republicans, just actors in a play, WWE at the highest levels as it always has been.
We've been slowly introduced to Russ Vought over the years for this moment, and new legal precedent/interpretations that come with.
They've already spoken the impoundment control act being unconstitutional into the Overton Window... this doesn't get resolved until it's used to do something permanent.
I'm specifically watching what happens with Air Traffic Control as that's a lever that the economy will feel quickly. It's already making me put off booking a trip to El Salvador for Adopting BTC. I ran the numbers and it would only take ~$4 per passenger enplanement/deplanement + ~$.02 per pound of cargo for the industry to fund it directly... aligns with the tarriff-for-debt and paying the troops stuff already happening.
Clearly a natsec operation to defund everything by default so that government can only be funded sustainably. Currency war, reformation. These are weeks where decades happen.
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Lol I love how I work for Congress and your I guess view of what I and several thousands of others like me do for Congress is akin to WWE.
Not sure what you are talking about with the impoundment act being used to do something permanent.... Thats not really how it functions. Withholding funds isnt the same as cancelling projects?
What are you expecting to happen with Air Traffic Control? Fun fact if it ever got bad we could send in our air force trained operators to help lessen the load but that would freak everyone out. The issue with Air Traffic Control is how long it takes and that there is one school in the US for it. That is why you saw the creation of Enhanced Air Traffic – Collegiate Training Initiative (AT-CTI) last October and the rapid scale up Sec. Duffy has done with it. Now 7 schools are running this program but it still takes two years to complete and we are barely one year in.
Air Traffic Control has for a long time depending on people retiring from the military to join them. That is why there was only one school was because most people got their training in the military.
We also do not fund things based on usage on purpose. Look at Amtrak, the USPS, etc. once a pandemic or some sort of disruption hits the whole system falls apart.
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You fetch coffee and dry cleaning for the actors, probably never even heard of a SCIF until I asked you about it.
I'm not talking about onboarding new controllers, but paying the ones already on the job.
We also do not fund things based on usage on purpose.
Yea, money laundering. Everything must be defunded by default for that to end, which is what we're watching unfold.
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Jesus Christ you are so hard to take seriously. You act like some enlightened person who knows so much when you have instead moved to a state of being entirely separated from reality and what is going on.
There is no issue with paying the ones we already have because its required once the government is funded. They dont have to go back and deal with backpay negotiations because they are required by law. All of these Departments and Agencies are linked to credit unions as well that are offering free loans to cover bills. Hell even Chase has contacted me about how since I work for Congress they have a whole new thing set up for people effected by the missed paychecks cause guess what I'm not getting paid this month either.
Now you are jumping to money laundering because I said we dont fund things based off of taxing people for using things.... got it.....
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you are so hard to take seriously
That's your pretense of knowledge you don't actually have, ego. I only discuss the possibilities.
separated from reality
You have zero idea what's real, but think you do.
once the government is funded
You're a little slow, eh?
Assume this goes on much, much longer, potentially so long emergency powers change things such that the end is not restoration but something entirely new. Private lending won't float the payroll in perpetuity.
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Jesus Christ you still cant carry a complete conversation can you? You only discuss possibilities but yeah know the biggest one is that the government funding passes. Guess you forgot about that one.
You are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole with your poor attempt at leveraging ego driven behavior.... I mean any basic psych course would say that the person with poor impulse control and highly likely real work issues with fitting in would be the one throwing these phrases around first. Its a really bad attempt to get people to doubt themselves or feel bad.
Your usage of "You have zero idea what's real, but think you do." is a prime example of further behavior discussed above. But I will highlight it is entirely different English style than what you used with the philosophical approach used first.
Of course you gotta follow it up with a good ending of calling me slow. To go back to how you first went after me from the philosophical your cognitive dissonance response of projection is crystal clear.
The government will be funded in November. Now will it be the 3rd or will it be a couple of days after that who knows but the pressure will break the stalemate with SNAP benefits not hitting along with a second paycheck for most Federal workers.
Regardless your whole shtick has devolved into an ad hominem attack. Definitely a curve ball I didnt see coming today so that was neat to brush off my psychology terms. Go touch some grass or go on a walk.
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Case in point for a classic ego defense mechanism in action.