Good analysis. I think there are a couple factors here. I think a lot of OGs with a lot of unrealized gain in Bitcoin had plan to sell some 100k and beyond. I think also a lot of plebs who were stacking like crazy during the bear market have slowed down their buying and maybe even selling a little to catch up on things they missed during the bear- plus life is more expensive these days.

And probably the biggest factor is the entry of tradfi into the market. That brought a lot of capital in and pushed the price up to 100k and beyond but tradfi funds have a mandate to rebalance quarterly and diversify so they add and subtract to their bitcoin holdings based on how it has done. Also CME futures are a huge part of the market now and these are pros not degens on Binance. This is all paper that affects the price but they never need to touch the underlying. They will only get caught offside when we have a surge in price. Otherwise they can pretty neatly keep a cap and floor on price and happily trade the range.