Twelve consecutive quarters of selling shares.
No buybacks. Few significant purchases.
And a pile of cash that's never been so big.
He's signaling what he thinks of the current market:
The prices don't compensate for the risk!
Buffett has been selling stock for 12 quarters.
In other words: Berkshire has been selling more than it has buying for 3 years.
More than US$180 billion in net sales since the end of 2022.
It was the biggest dismantling in the company's history—done quarter by quarter, with discipline.
He didn't even want to buy back his own Berkshire shares.
That's five consecutive quarters without buybacks, even with the stock falling 18% since the legendary investor announced his retirement.
Today it trades at 72% above book value, well above the range where Buffett usually buys back shares.
If he doesn't see value even there, imagine what he sees in the rest.
The Buffett Indicator is at 217%.
This metric was developed decades ago to compare the total value of US stocks to the country's GDP.
Buffett has said that levels like this are "clearly dangerous."
And he's acting accordingly.
But it's worth highlighting: American companies have become global, leading many people to dismiss the true meaning of the calculation today.
The operation is going well. The problem is valuation.
Berkshire earned US$13.5 billion in the quarter, a 34% increase in operating profit.
The highlight was the insurance division — mainly reinsurance and commercial insurance — which delivered more than double the underwriting profit.
Geico stood out: a 13% drop in profit, pressured by more claims and higher costs to acquire clients.
Railroads rose, energy fell.
Buffett sees value in the business — just not at the current price.
While everyone else is seeking risk, he's holding his position.
Berkshire closed the quarter with $381.6 billion in cash, the highest amount in its history.
Even with falling interest rates, Buffett prefers liquidity to investing in assets without a margin of safety.
How long will this continue?
Buffett doesn't need to give interviews.
The data speaks for itself:
– Zeroed repurchases
– Stopped buying
– Continues selling
– Record cash balance of US$381 billion
The signs are everywhere.
And it's very important to stay one step ahead of the market.