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The question I want to ask is: A: m(use btc | need cross-border payments) not B: m(use btc for cross-border payments | bitcoiner ^ need cross-border payments)
The problem with this framing is that m(use btc | anyone) is already pretty low, so m(use btc | need cross border) will also be low simply for the first fact. It doesn't really tell us much about whether bitcoin is good for that use-case.
The reason I want to condition on holding bitcoin is because it tells us more about whether bitcoin is actually useful for that purpose. If m( use btc | need cross border) is low, that could just tell us that few people know how to use bitcoin, or even hold any bitcoin.... it doesn't tell us whether cross border payments is a good use case for bitcoin.
My sense is you just think that that there's no demand for the use cases of bitcoin, not that bitcoin isn't useful for them. That is, your contention is:
"Even if m(use btc | have btc AND need cross border) is high, m( need cross border OR have bitcoin) is low" ... and similar for debasement resistance.
Basically, the things bitcoin is good for, few people care about.
My sense is you just think that that there's no demand for the use cases of bitcoin, not that bitcoin isn't useful for them. [...] Basically, the things bitcoin is good for, few people care about.
That's what I'm afraid of, yeah. With a slight tweak:
  1. It's not so much "few people" as "small resultant m"
  2. What btc is good for, and that people do care about at large m, is a certain type of speculation. It is demonstrably the case that this is so.
  3. What is not demonstrably the case is that the m is very large for the common catechism that we can all recite, about how btc is sovereign uncensorable non-state money, blah blah.
Most of the response / advocacy is invariably aimed at category 2, and thus SN is replete w/ calls to educate the ignorant masses about the Good News of btc, get them to spend their sats on hamburgers, etc. I'm glad people are doing this. I bet it's doing work in the background. In fact, I'm confident that it is. But it's not moving the needle right now.
I'm coming to believe there's a nuanced and complicated relationship between type #1 value, and type #2 value, that I want to explore.
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Yeah, I agree with you. I posted in another comment on this thread that I think a realistic outcome for bitcoin is that it becomes the Tor of money. Still around and being used, but never achieving mainstream adoption
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