231 sats \ 0 replies \ @monk_cactus 27 Jan 2023 \ on: What is the best takedown of Bitcoin out there? bitcoin
The bitcoin protocol will not fail.
However, the nebulous "hyperbitcoinization" is not likely in our lifetime, and I would argue ever. Here is the definition of hyperbitionization I have in mind:
- Fiat currencies are dead
- Sovereign custody is > 70%
- Native bitcoin is the primary medium of exchange
The base layer of bitcoin does not scale to the world population if we continue on the current trajectory of price appreciation. Layers built on top of it will always make trust and privacy trade offs, and that's ok. Trust is useful in society, so long as you can control who you want to trust and when.
If adoption continues on pace, running a node and holding your keys is going to be for those who have savings of at least $50,000 in today's dollars. For everything else, people will either be using fiat, chaumian e cash, or free banking issued credit a la Pear Credit.
So in this scenario, I would put sovereign custody at ~50%, medium of exchange not native bitcoin, and fiat currencies continuing through inertia.
And that's probably the best case scenario.
Worst case scenario, bitcoin remains a primarily dark market money, valued for its permission-less and sound nature, as well as its native programmability. It will be used for international payments and bank settlements, as well as online micropayments, but usually swapped for fiat. Most won't think about bitcoin as their unit of account.