1 - Fibonacci The chart projects wave 5 of Elliott Wave Theory, starting from the $70,000 low in 2024 and surpassing the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level—which would place BTC at $345,000, and the extended target of 258.7% reaches $500,000.

2 - Halving + Global Liquidity The 2024 halving reduces the supply of new BTC by 50%, while central banks expand their balance sheets again to deal with record public debt. This liquidity injection tends to seek scarce assets—gold and, mainly, Bitcoin.

3 - Spot ETFs as a Catalyst With approved ETFs and accelerated institutional adoption, publicly traded companies add BTC to their balance sheets (as an inflationary store of value). The “MicroStrategy 2.0” effect amplifies demand and further reduces the circulating supply. 4 - Reflexivity Cycle Each rise generates headlines, which attract investors, which generate more rises. Mass psychology enters FOMO (“fear of missing out”) mode, and the price breaks through technical resistances that become supports.

5 - Geopolitical Narrative and Digital Refuge With global instability, exchange controls, and devaluation of fiat currencies, Bitcoin consolidates itself as a “getaway asset.” Emerging countries and even sovereign wealth funds begin to accumulate BTC, driving the parabolic appreciation.

Technical Summary Target 1: US$ 238,000 (61.8% of the expansion) Target 2: US$ 345,000 (161.8%) Final target: US$ 500,000 (258.7%) — March 2026