Note: these on-chain BIP-Knotz futures are not binary futures! They actually have three possible outcomes.

In the third option, a hash power minority mines enough blocks that Knots splits off into a separate currency. In that circumstance, both sides "win": the Knots side wins more Knots coins, and the Bitcoin side wins more Bitcoin.

Of course, as measured in Big Mac purchasing power, the Bitcoin side is almost certainly going to be the winner... But this (quite likely!) outcome does change the pricing for these futures a bit, in theory.

Trusted, off-chain, futures could take this situation into account too...