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The expectation of a rate cut in December plummeted from 72% to nearly 50% in just a few days, and the S&P 500 felt the impact.
The market is groping in the dark: inflation remains high, the labor market is weakening, and the Fed is not delivering any clear signals, exacerbated by the data blackout following the shutdown.
The result is this: increasing volatility and increasingly nervous pricing regarding the next steps in monetary policy.
Sad state the markets have become
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127 sats \ 1 reply \ @freetx 3h
Here is a conundrum.....suppose you could press a button and the following would happen:
  • New fed chair, a la Volcker, raises interest rates to 12%
  • Economy crashes and majority of fake zombie companies and most big corporates go bankrupt / bought out
  • Tremendously high interest rates finally forces a massive scale back at federal level. Most entitlement programs are scrapped. Big political upheavals completely remake dem and rep members
  • Banks become recapitalized as high interest rates attract depositors
  • By year 4 or 5, real green shoots in economy emerge, lead by real profitable companies (manufacturing, etc)
  • By year 7 or so interest rates have fallen to 5.5% and market is booming
  • This sets us up for another 30 yr run of a real positive economy
HOWEVER, during the interest situation, Bitcoin falls >90% and although it starts growing slowly again, it never hits a ATH while you are alive....
Do you press that button? (I probably would)
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Absolutely! Bitcoin just becomes an asset not a lifeline.
Lots of pain would come with this option but the next generation would have a shot of at a much better life.
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Honestly, I'm very worried.
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