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This has probably already occurred to many of you, I may be slow on the uptake.
It's about OG HODLers selling, the big examples given in this sub are more likely moving into Zcash and/or Monero for personal security reasons, although they were selling over $100k. Those people will still have to convert back to bitcoin to access dollars at any significant quantity.
It's not bitcoin treasury companies, yet, not in general. There are a few who are in trouble, and you might be bearish about the space in general.
It's that bitcoin mining companies are exposed to the AI bubble that Google and the Chinese in firms are putting heavy price pressure on because as Google said at the outset that there is no moat, and no path to the level of turnover and profit required to pay back the levels of debt taken on to build out the infrastructure.
The closest equivalent to this is the railway bubbles of the 19th century.
Bitcoin mining companies are being forced to sell Bitcoin to pay the debts down.
So my question is, will bitcoin mining revenues to service the debts of the AI industry for the coming years, until the industry has built a sustainable revenue base? It seems to me that bitcoin mining is going to be encumbered by this debt for the next 5 years at least, which means two things:
  • nothing has happened to Bitcoin
  • the price won't appreciate or blow off top as we're used to
0 sats \ 1 reply \ @anon 22 Nov
Bitcoin is a child. It hasn’t been around long enough, imo, to do any serious analysis like this.
In 20 years it will be mature and ‘middle aged’ and do so many other and different things. But right now it’s nowhere near that.
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On chain data exists to conduct analysis.
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