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The bullish case for MSTR, a contrarian view

I'm writing this as a contrarian view to @denlillaapan 's multiple takedowns, clotheslines and piledrivers of treasury companies 🤣🤣

I'm not a customer of any treasury company and I don't endorse them, I'm merely saying bullish because that's what the video describes

I found this video after watching another video describing price action and this one was referenced, which led me to this format, where the four guests bounce off each other and predominantly discuss the products from StrategyB

Of the four hosts, one being Jeff Walton, who I've seen a few times on podcasts specialising in the description of the economics underpinning Bitcoin

They begin the show by referencing that all major events in history are notably linked to three personas

The poet, the prophet and the prince (the prince is also seen as a leader or general type)

So the french revolution is used to illustrate with Russo the poet, i forget the prophet and obviously Napoleon the prince

So we come to Bitcoin and as you'd expect Satoshi is the poet, they use Jeff Booth as the prophet but you can insert Saifedean or any OG of your choice, and finally Saylor is the prince!

Then they make the case for Stretch, one of the products which has popped up alongside mstr, the original wrapper, i have listened to a few pods where Saylor outlines the benefits of his instruments and I'm left thinking, i can see the attraction from a fiat mindset, you avoid the volatility and recieve a steady dividend.

Of course the elephant in the room as Den points out regularly is the custody'ing of your cash, they cover the masses of reports online about the purported healthiness of MicroStrategy, the cries of liquidation and margin call, to which surprisingly or not, the verdict is that all's well on the ship Strategy, apparently from a solvency point of view, the price tanking is not really an issue, but I'll leave that for you to decide

Recent price pain is acknowledged and debated, is there a four year cycle yadda yadda yadda!
Lots of M2 money supply, macroeconomics etc etc

Depending if you like this type of discussion, I quite liked the channel and will keep an eye out for future episodes.

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184 sats \ 5 replies \ @denlillaapan 20h

i can see the attraction from a fiat mindset, you avoid the volatility and recieve a steady dividend.

I agree with this, and that was the compelling, intriguing story from the get-go (#1019584, #1081555).

Spoken to plenty of tradfi peeps (bonds people, PMs etc) who are already Bitcoin curious and they seem pretty convinced that this is an excellent market niché.

Problem:

for (tradfi) people to get this trade (STRC, STRK etc), they have to answer the question "where does the yield come from?" Which is, they have to understand bitcoin and its inevitability. ...but if you get bitcoin's inevitability, why would you want to cap your upside to 10-15% a year, handing over the reins to Saylor with all manner of mNAV compression and management problems associated? No, if you truly get it, you shove your fund or family office into actual bitcoin actually custodied and actually controlled.... and hold ~4.5% T-bills and Nvidia (#877723) for the rest.
= ergo: no massive flows to Saylor.

That's where I'm stuck.

104 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 14h

I'm stuck even earlier. I believe in btc, yet would happily invest some money for an uncorrelated 10%. Yet that seems not to be what's on offer, which is rather:

Btc is doing great: you get 10%
Btc not doing great: ?

What you have to believe to take that deal I have no idea.

104 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 18h

I think it is a market niche. There is a cohort of investors that would like income at higher yields than most dividend paying stocks offer that it doesn't matter to them if they understand or don't understand Bitcoin. Now I don't think this pool of capital is as massive as some purport but I do think it could be significant.

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @byzantine 15h

yep. this is right. i get stuck at this point as well.

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 19h

That's exactly where I got stuck, too.

If you get bitcoin, you probably just buy bitcoin (unless you're capital is stranded, yada yada).

If you don't get bitcoin, you probably don't believe in Strategy either.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 15h

They do not have to believe Bitcoin will inevitably go to the moon to see that it has enjoyed spectacular gains to date and that buying via Saylor/Strategy does not require any challenging self custody. There may also be tax advantages in buying via Strategy. Here in New Zealand at least capital gains made via equities are not automatically taxed..whereas any gains made via Bitcoin/crypto are. More conventional investors see others making huge gains via crypto/bitcoin and want some exposure- Strategy and the like are an easy option for them. They are not toxic maxis or revolutionaries- they are just ordinary conventional follow the herd investors seeking diversification and potential gain. They had probably never even heard of the 4 year cycle...

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 17h

Strategy created some truly intriguing financial instruments based on an open protocol. Just like any other product in the free market, if it solves a problem, it will attract capital.

Most of us are not familiar with the traditional market, making it difficult for people to comprehend the intricacies involved.

Consider a company that pays a 3% dividend. Most of these companies are heavily leveraged, relying on debt. If the loans were called in, they would likely face bankruptcy. Despite this, these companies trade at a premium, and the concern about their yield is not as significant.

What Strategy is doing is revolutionary and it’s hard for folks to comprehend so they quick write it off and hope for it’s demise.

67 sats \ 1 reply \ @bitcoingraffiti 18h

my bullish case: i watched a few pods

"i'll leave you to decide"

wow

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Taj OP 18h

Not financial advice obviously 🤣🤣

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Now_Singularity 13h

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 15h

Will the Four Year Cycle rear its ugly head again? Has it already? Will Saylor die in mysterious circumstances in a boating accident? What will the price of Bitcoin be at the end of January 2026? Will it be above USD$100k? Ladies and Gentlemen please place your bets here- https://beta.predyx.com/market/bitcoin-price-will-be-usd110000-or-above-on-1159pm-january-31-2026-according-to-coinbase-new-zealand-time-1763841090

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 15h

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 16h

The 4 year cycle is going to test the robustness of Strategy!