If You Want to Understand Bitcoin's Future... Listen to Rep. Schweikert \ stacker news ~bitcoin

The one 'major' issue I have with regard to Bitcoin's future is this...

Is it currency?
Is it property?
Is it a stock (obviously not)?
Is it a bond?
Well if it's a currency... perhaps it isn't 'the best' currency because it has a fixed supply and an extremely volatile exchange rate. One day all of it will be mined... and in 10 years 99% of it will be mined. So perhaps spending it on tacos and beer isn't the best idea (although I personally have bought tacos and beer with Lightning). Maybe one day everyone will use Bitcoin... to buy things day to day but that is probably far off.
Something with a truly fixed supply strikes me more like property... beachfront real estate basically. You buy and hold it 1000 sats at a time. If you can afford to buy millions of sats you do that... if you can afford 1000s of sats only then you do that instead. Your 'digital property' your sats your Bitcoin you can take anywhere with you at almost any scale.
Bitcoin is not a stock, there is no 'revenue' or 'operating company' behind it. It is a bearer instrument... similar to a commodity or piece of land.
Bitcoin is obviously not a bond either... it doesn't pay interest (cough cough MSTR).

People don't typically use currencies to hedge uncertainty... and the overwhelming vast majority of currencies depreciate each year with very few exceptions (the Swiss Franc has appreciated 16% ytd against the Dollar which has had its worst year in 40 years).

So why do I post Rep Schweikert's video?

Does the Representative's video mention Bitcoin? No.
Does it mention Gold? No.

The video deals purely with the extraordinary debt and deficits the United States is taking on, something the vast majority of congress and vast majority of citizens refuse to acknowledge.

It's a long video but here is an AI summary:

Rep. Schweikert delivers a stark warning about America's escalating national debt. He highlights the country's borrowing rate, which is currently about $72,000 per second, projected to increase to $82,000 per second next year, and $6 billion per day (1:37-1:56).

6 billion dollars of new debt... per day. To rise to 6.5 billion by the time this speech was made.

Key points from the speech include: Foreign Creditors as Leverage. Japan, as the largest individual creditor, holding nearly a trillion dollars of US sovereign debt, could use this as leverage in trade negotiations (2:25-2:55).

Fragility of Debt Markets: The US Treasury is juggling money internally, borrowing from military retirement and thrift savings accounts to cover a $6 billion daily shortfall since hitting the debt ceiling months ago. These amounts must be paid back with interest (3:25-4:40). Escalating Interest Payments: By 2035, Moody's estimates that 30% of all US tax collections will go solely to paying interest on the national debt. If interest rates on US debt increase by just 1%, this figure could rise to 45% of tax receipts (4:45-6:12).

For anyone paying attention... this is extraordinary. 30% of all federal revenue just to cover the interest payments on the National Debt, assuming interest rates don't rise. At all. If they do it's closer to 45%.

Interest vs. Defense Spending: Interest payments on the national debt have surpassed the Department of Defense budget since 2022. Interest is now the second-largest expenditure for the U.S. government, following Social Security (13:00-13:35).

Again, how many American know this? How many actually care?

Drivers of Debt: The primary drivers of US sovereign debt are healthcare costs and interest payments, not discretionary spending. Rep. Schweikert argues that current discussions focus on healthcare financing rather than revolutionary changes to reduce the cost of healthcare itself (7:00-8:07).

Global Standing: Other countries like Italy, Greece, France, Canada, Germany, China, and Japan can sell 10-year bonds at lower interest rates than the United States, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the US as the "gold standard" (9:31-10:09).

The lower the interest rate on a bond... the 'safer' it is considered by bondholders. US bonds are 'riskier' by comparison than those of other developed countries...

Doubling the Debt: Without significant changes, the United States is on track to double its national debt in the next 10 years, a process that took 240 years to achieve historically. This could lead to penalties in global debt markets (20:08-22:14).

David Schweikert in his many presentations in front of congress... is incredibly eloquent. There's no way a quick AI summary can present the facts and magnitude of his actual presentations... however the point he makes over and over again is the current American fiscal trajectory is completely unsustainable.

It would make sense that interest rates would go up significantly... not only in the United States but across the world as governments in France, Italy, Germany, the UK, Japan plus the United States take on debt. The more debt the riskier the loan to a government and therefore the higher the interest rate that needs to be paid out plus the principal.

There was an article in Bloomberg today https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-26/bitcoin-s-drawdown-breaks-old-rule-as-volatility-stays-tame?embedded-checkout=true

And like most of the time when discussing Bitcoin... Bloomberg misrepresents, lies, deceives or omits facts that don't fit their narrative.

“As the Bitcoin market matures, both implied volatility and drawdowns should become more subdued. We’re already seeing that play out,” said Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata.

The relative calm comes as macro forces remain central to the narrative this cycle. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged — futures now imply an 80% probability of a December move, up from 42% last week — helping steady risk assets broadly.

So let me get this straight... the lowering of interest rates, more likely to cause inflation, with more evidence of a slowing economy resulting in fewer tax receipts...

And more debt for the government...

Means that Bitcoin will go up? Basically when the economy sucks (and the Fed lowers rates)... Bitcoin 'goes up' because risk is tolerated? What?

That doesn't make any sense?

“For the crypto ecosystem, rising prospects of an imminent Fed rate cut is the “medicine“ needed to repair and heal the damage done during the recent crypto deleveraging episode,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia.

First of all:

F*** crypto. We don't need crypto, we don't need air-tokens or proof-of-stake nonsense. Bitcoin only.

Second of all:

My Bitcoin didn't change during the "episode". Traders with an over-leveraged account were 'deleveraged'... but that doesn't apply to regular Bitcoin held as a bearer asset.

Most importantly:

If US debt is so bad and practically unlimited in its scale and scope, with the government needing to borrow more and more to meet its obligations...
Doesn't Bitcoin's fixed supply make it a safe-haven? A global safe-haven that thrives in chaos and market-volatility? If it thrives in volatility and the world is/will be awash in debt... WHY is Bitcoin risk-on?
If Bitcoin 'goes up' when interest rates go down making inflation more likely as evidence of a poorly-growing economy...

Then Bitcoin couldn't possibly be Risk-On. Its acting more like risk-off.

So which is it?

Institutional participation is recasting Bitcoin as a high-beta macro asset rather than a retail-driven speculative vehicle. “Prior Bitcoin cycles are irrelevant now,” Fan said. “With ETFs and traditional finance controlling the biggest marginal wallets, Bitcoin increasingly moves with overall macro risk sentiment.”

Bitcoin is only 16 years old. It cannot legally drive a car, drink (in North America), give consent or do the other things adults can do. It is a child by comparison with other assets and larger financial offerings. So being as young as it is... why does Bloomberg treat it with such disdain?

The only conclusion I can draw... is that our 'Financial News' (CNBC Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal) love to hate Bitcoin. They don't explain how it works, they don't explain anything about Lightning, micropayments, or various 'layers'... why blocks are 10 minutes or why the timechain is transparent (reducing the likelihood of cheating or inflation).

We know the federal government is insolvent and Americans are getting poorer due to dollar debasement (inflation) and the loss of trust in government finances. Yet Bitcoin is still "beanie babies" in 2025.

If Bitcoin is to be the 'reserve' asset, the risk-off asset with the most survivable computer network in the world... likely to grow in size and recognition in the coming decades...

Why would anyone sell it?
Is it really a currency? Or more like property or risk-free collateral?
and why does our "financial news" not educate people better on the actual risks in the Financial System?

The only conclusion I can draw is that our "financial news" is entertainment only. It doesn't educate, Bitcoin does.

The current 'system' is about making a 'quick buck' while 'trading' (the worst economically-salient activity) while government finances collapse and newpapers promote their advertising.

Like Rep. Schweikert says "Math will eventually win"

What an interesting state of affairs.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @unboiled 5h

Well if it's a currency... perhaps it isn't 'the best' currency because it has a fixed supply and an extremely volatile exchange rate. One day all of it will be mined... and in 10 years 99% of it will be mined. So perhaps spending it on tacos and beer isn't the best idea (although I personally have bought tacos and beer with Lightning).

Parker Lewis says it best:

If people don't want to spend their bitcoin, it's not really because they're worried about the price of bitcoin going up. It's because they have too much fiat.

If you truly think spending it isn't a good idea because it appreciates over fiat, it tells me you're trying to stay (or are unknowingly stuck) in fiat land and rely on Bitcoin as NGU tech only.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @028559d218 OP 3h

As the Dollar depreciates and 'goes down' every year Bitcoin will 'go up'. The same with houses, cars, jewelry, art, stocks... everything that people use as a store of value.

Our money is broken because trust is broken... trust that the government won't simply 'print more' of the money it wants people to use thereby devaluing the currency people work for.

So saying people should 'spend their bitcoin' is like saying people should 'spend their house' or 'spend their jewelry' or 'spend their gold' yes sure they can spend those things if they want but I think that misses the point. Until that day that fiat no longer exists... Bitcoin will be 'digital property' or 'digital collateral' used for savings and to improve trust. Instead of saving in real estate or gold or stocks... people will just... save in Bitcoin because its' simpler and better and Bitcoin will 'go up' the same way the stock market or real estate goes up as the dollar debases every year.

As far as Bitcoin as a currency... one day there will be a conflict - say Russia Ukraine, India Pakistan, China Taiwan etc... and as part of that conflict the resolution will be a multisig wherein the combatants hold keys to the multisig and the other key is held by a neutral third party (governing body, neutral nation state etc).

If the terms of the 'peace agreement' are broken the Bitcoin will be collaboratively moved punishing the party that broke the terms. At which point the awarded party will hold the Bitcoin... until that time they wish to dispose of it, send it, use it as collateral sell it etc.

This isn't something that happens with currency normally... but it is something that happens with Land.

It just makes me think of Bitcoin less like 'currency' and more like property or real estate, perfect collateral, something that holds its value but is simpler than stocks or bonds for users to save in. In which case it doesn't need to 'go up' but simply maintain purchasing power as fiat debases yearly.

The point I was trying to make in my original post.. was that government debt and inflation is the #1 force driving people to Bitcoin. It's not censorship resistance (although that is important) it is government debt and money-printing. Without those things and the perverse incentives people would not be flocking to Bitcoin today to nearly the same extent.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @unboiled 3h

Until that day that fiat no longer exists... Bitcoin will be 'digital property' or 'digital collateral' used for savings and to improve trust.

Citation needed.

I'm using it as moe multiple times per week. Yet fiat still exists.

You're trying to describe it as if using it for savings only is the only choice. Yet there are plenty of people like me, who live the opposite of that claim.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @028559d218 OP 3h

What is the purpose of pay-to-post? To improve trust. To reduce spam. To show appreciation for 'good posts' and thoughtful contributions to Stacker News... so that Stacker News is better.

That goes beyond currency.

The same with email - when someone creates an email client (it may even exist already) whereby to email someone you have to zap them 10 sats... it will reduce spam overall. But it's not about the payment it's about building trust and consequences for cooperation.

THAT'S Bitcoin's killer use case - trust maximization, the elimination of intermediaries, and peer to peer payments that improve trust under a transparent monetary network. I think that goes way beyond currency.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @unboiled 2h

What is the purpose of pay-to-post? To improve trust. To reduce spam.

I don't know about trust. I see its key purpose as attaching (a more significant) cost to posting. Which will reduce spam that cannot extract more than it has to pay.

So it's less about trust and more about making low-returning spam a negative investment. It's about incentives, not trust.

Trust may or may not be a downstream effect from that. I haven't thought deeply enough about whether or not I trust posters here more than other places because of pay-to-post. I feel I see less noise and more signal here. But SN certainly isn't devoid of noise.