0 sats \ 1 reply \ @orthwyrm 1 Feb 2023 \ parent \ on: What's your experience with debt? bitcoin
Oh, I'm fine thanks. Maybe my post was a bit melodramatic! I have more than enough BTC from earlier investments to cover the cost if I need to pay back the loan early or lose my job. I'd just hate to be in that position, given the current BTC/GBP exchange rate.
I averaged over a 3 month window between Aug 2021 and Oct 2021, accumulating about ~0.7 BTC.
Thanks to the loan I currently have: +0.7 BTC assets, -£20k liabilities.
The loan repayments are £375 PCM. Had I not taken out the loan and DCA'd this into BTC, I would currently have: +0.3 BTC assets, -£0 liabilities.
(These figures are approximate as the BTC DCA calculators tend to be denominated in USD, and the GBP/USD exchange rate has had a turbulent couple of years!)
If BTC shoots up to new ATHs this year for some stupid reason and stays there, then my loan may have beaten the DCA strategy despite the frankly terrible entry point. It seems more likely to me though that BTC will crab for a year or two, in which case I will have lost quite a few sats in aggregate. I'll only know for sure once the loan matures in 2027, but I suspect this trade will end up leaving me about 0.5 BTC worse off than I otherwise would have been. An expensive mistake for sure!
Let's hope it turns out fine. And if it doesn't, I guess the difference with the DCA alternative may not be that large.
Anyways, you are obviously smart and have run your numbers, so I'm sure you'll be in good shape regardless of what happens.
Don't forget to publish the outcome in 2027. Low time preference shitposting :)
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