The state-owned company's new strategic plan includes increased production, cost cuts, a drop in breakeven point, and more disciplined capital expenditure.

However, it also raises concerns: optimistic oil projections, lower dividends, and investments concentrated in the short term.

See the 10 points that really matter!

1️⃣ Production revised upwards: +230 million barrels by 2029

Petrobras has raised its target to 2.5–2.7 million barrels/day between 2026 and 2029, above the previous plan.

This leap comes from technical advances such as more modern FPSOs (floating platforms that extract and process oil at sea), more efficient interconnections, and better field management.

2️⃣ Lower Capex, but with a US$10 billion cut margin

Total investment will reach US$109 billion by 2030.

Of this total, US$91 billion is already contracted, and US$18 billion is "under evaluation"—meaning it may or may not materialize.

In addition, there are US$10 billion that depend on cash generation, providing flexibility in case oil prices fall.

(Capex = investments in new projects, infrastructure, and equipment.)

3️⃣ Búzios continues as a growth engine

A large part of the plan is concentrated in the Búzios field, in the pre-salt layer — one of the most profitable areas in the global oil industry.

These fields have low natural decline (they produce well for longer) and a cost per barrel much lower than the industry average.

4️⃣ Breakeven point drops from US$82 to US$59/barrel — and targets US$48 in 2030

Petrobras has reduced the minimum point necessary for the project to "pay for itself".

This breakeven point (total cost for each barrel to generate profit) has fallen from US$82 to US$59 in 2026, and the new target is US$48 in 2030.

Part of this came from the revision in leasing expenses — which are rentals of platforms and equipment.

The forecast has fallen from US$60 billion to US$45–50 billion.

5️⃣ Cost Reduction of US$12 Billion by 2030

The company expects to save US$12 billion in operating expenses over the next 5 years.

These gains will come from greater process efficiency—which, according to JPM, should reduce the cost of each barrel extracted by US$3.5.

6️⃣ More modest dividends and no extras

Petrobras maintained its policy of distributing 45% of operating cash flow less investments (capex).

However, unlike the previous cycle, there will be no extraordinary dividends.

The projection is to pay between US$ 45–50 billion by 2030 — well below the US$ 65 billion paid in the previous cycle.

7️⃣ Projected debt continues to fall even with cheaper oil

Even using more conservative oil price projections, Petrobras maintained its debt ceiling at US$75 billion and continues to target US$65 billion.

The minimum cash policy of US$6 billion was also maintained, seeking to demonstrate financial discipline even in a scenario of lower revenue.

8️⃣ Short-term concentrated capital expenditure puts pressure on cash flow

Even with the total cut, the plan continues to concentrate the largest investments between 2026 and 2028.

This is because several FPSOs are under construction or interconnection, which requires more resources now—before generating a return.

9️⃣ Refining and Renewables with More Caution

Petrobras plans to increase its refining capacity by 320,000 barrels/day by 2030.

Regarding clean fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane), entry will be through minority partnerships or shared control, with potential for M&A (acquisitions).

🔟 Brent Premise Remains Optimistic

The plan considers Brent (the type of oil that serves as a global benchmark) to be between US$63–70 by 2027, even with current prices below that.

The state-owned company itself admits that for every US$10 below the forecast, annual cash flow falls by US$5 billion — a concern for analysts like JPM and Goldman Sachs.