Two weeks after the launch of Gemini, the number of daily active users of ChatGPT fell by about 6%, according to Similarweb data.

Most of OpenAI's revenue comes from the end consumer. In other words, that valuation of around US$500 billion and the goal of US$20 billion per year depend on one very simple thing: the user curve continuing to rise, not fall. Especially considering the size of the check they've already written for infrastructure.

The public is migrating to tools that combine speed, personalization, and interoperability, three areas where ChatGPT is still trying to reinvent itself. The "single assistant" model is beginning to lose ground to embedded AI and native interfaces in apps and operating systems.