Sure I am a hater, but I do respect the Rams team and coaching staff and don't hate them as much as I hate the Seattle Seagulls. I am admittedly highly annoyed by the Rams dumbass injury luck this year, the media fawning over them and the refs giving them the Chiefs treatment but aside from my biases I do think Seahawks and 49ers combined is a better bet than the Rams to win the West.

In my opinion, if you want to be comfortable with your bet on the Rams to win the division you have to believe the Rams will beat both the Lions this Sunday in LA and the Seahawks next Thursday in Seattle. Currently they are solidly favoured to beat the Lions and slight underdogs against the Seahawks.

If they do win both games they will be almost guaranteed to win the division as they will hold at least one game leads over the Seahawks and 49ers going into the final two weeks where they play the Falcons and Cardinals.

If they lose both of those games they are likely not going to win the division because they will probably be two games behind Seattle and one game behind SF and hold the tiebreaker against neither heading into the final two weeks.

Where it gets interesting is if they split those two games. Which based on current odds is the most likely scenario.

Losing to Detroit is their better scenario as they would likely fall one game behind the Seahawks but beating them the following Thursday ties them up and gives the Rams the edge with a 4-1 divisional record and only the Cardinals left to play whereas Seattle would have a 2-3 divisional record with the 49ers left to play and no way of clinching the tiebreaker against either Rams or 49ers. That begs the question if the Seahawks have locked up a playoff spot by week 18 but have no path to win the division unless the Cards beat the Rams how do they approach that final week? Losing to Detroit opens up a path for the 49ers to win the division if they win their final four games because they will be tied head to head, tied at 5-1 in the division but the Rams will lose the conference record tiebreaker. 49ers play Titans, Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Winning out isn't likely but possible especially if the Seahawks aren't desperate in that final game. In this scenario the Rams are vulnerable but still likely win the division with 49ers losing one of their final 4 games.

Losing to Seattle, which odds suggest is more likely, would be a more dangerous scenario for the Rams. That would give the Seahawks a one game advantage in the division with two games to go and the Rams would need to them to lose to either the Panthers or 49ers. A loss to 49ers would give the Rams the division based on divisional tiebreaker but a loss to the Panthers wouldn't guarantee the Rams anything as the two teams would be tied in head to head, divisional record and conference record. It would go to strength of victory which likely would go to Rams but could swing the Seahawks way depending on how a couple non common opponents finish out. Another wrinkle in this scenario is with the Rams defeating Detroit they are most likely eliminating the Lions as a threat to the 49ers playoff hopes as 49ers would be 2 games ahead of them and hold the tiebreaker over them with 3 to go. Which means the 49ers only care about that final game if they need a win to make the playoffs (they have lost 2/3 heading into final game) or they need a win to win the division (they are 3-0 heading into the final game). There is a potential scenario where if the Rams lose to the Seahawks they need the 49ers to win the final game of the year but it doesn't matter to the 49ers.

TLDR:

I am fading the Rams to win the division in favour of the field until the Rams either beat both the Lions and Seahawks or beat the Seahawks and the 49ers lose one more game.

Sats for all, GR