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There are more and more restrictions on escaping the fiat system. CNBCs are a floating idea everywhere. Monitoring of sub 600 buck transactions are a real thing. The EU briefly actually did discuss banning Bitcoin mining.
Now what? Are we on the verge? Will it be a political battle and never actually happen? Or will the restrictions tickle in slowly?
I actually can imagine a world like that. Where exchanges are like movie piracy sites and you'll get an unfriendly letter for opening it without vpn/tor. Where going to a Bitcoin ATM is a common thing people do on abroad holidays. Where a Bitcoin meetup could get police raided like a weed smoking session with your friends in the war on drugs.
Will we all be exclusively in the underground soon?
CNBCs
You mean CBDCs
Regarding the rest:
When governments outright attack bitcoin (no longer using ESG as an excuse), I think this will be the true test if bitcoin delivers what it claims. If it fails and we can't fix it, it was at least worth trying. If it prevails, you won't be able to put a price tag on it. I think a underground economy will emerge in that case where you can only buy and sell stuff for bitcoin but no one will exchange it for other currencies.
However, I don't think it will become as criminalized such that we have to go to these extremes like underground economy or even bitcoin meetups getting raided as you mentioned for example. At least not in the western world.
I think (or hope?) this will be hard to justify. I hope that any reason they can bring up with won't stand in a court. I hope there are enough people with power out there who can and are willing to use the legal system to fight on that front for our side.
And in the meantime for the rest of us: Remember, don't comply
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