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Both parties have turned their backs on traditional economic advice. Is the country paying the price?

Key takeaways

  • Economists used to have a sort of special status in US policymaking; they were the consummate technocratic experts.
  • But over the past decade, both parties have increasingly been less enamored of economists — and economic thinking in general.
  • The reasons for this include Trump and Biden’s personalities, the rise of populist MAGA and progressive factions, plus structural changes in the economy and the information environment.
  • The consequences: more policies that economists dislike on the merits like tariffs and price controls — and also more badly designed policies that simply haven’t taken economic analysis into account.
  • Economists will only regain influence if political elites think they can help solve major problems, but right now they’re somewhat at a loss regarding voters’ current top concern — high prices.
The US’s two major parties can agree on one thing: They don’t have much use for economists anymore.
President Joe Biden ignored economists’ warnings about the risks of inflation. President Donald Trump dismissed economists’ arguments against his tariffs. And now, rising Democrats are backing price controls, even though mainstream economists aligned with both parties say they typically backfire.
Economists’ way of thinking has fallen out of favor among the political class more broadly. The right has embraced Trump’s zero-sum worldview and lost faith in expertise generally. Many progressives have rejected economists’ fundamental focus on trade-offs and the unintended consequences of policy interventions. Both sides are down on the free market.
The price will be paid.
As much as I criticize my own profession, there are some things we’ve figured out over the years.
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253 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford 5h
Honestly, before I found Ron Paul I thought the profession was mostly nonsense. I still think that but there are some good ideas/people.
Keynesian econ was dominant when was coming up. Its nonsense. The Austrian school has a humility that is lacking in the math based economics.
I still remember pissing off one of my econ profs in college by asking simple questions. She was a hard core Keynesian and it just sounded like nonsense to me. At that point I had not read or even heard of Mises, or Rothbard.
A few years later reading Economics in One Lesson answered so many questions. It connected so many dots.
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Sounds like you got a bad prof. Do you remember what questions you asked her?
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69 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 5h
Yeah, no kidding. They weren't memorable or even that pointed. They were coming from curiosity.
My classmates were taken back by her responses.
I did have another who was great. Looking back I think he was a Chicago school guy.
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Yeah... as critical as I am about my own profession, I resolutely believe that we need more economics education in America, not less.
One issue is that it's kinda hard to get young people interested in economics. I notice a definite pattern that older people tend to be more interested in econ, because they've had more personal experiences of how it impacts their life.
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Rothbard had some line about how people become interested in economics once they realize they’re getting screwed and want to understand how.
I suppose you have to live a little to get to that point.
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96% of scientists economists agree...
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Don’t get me wrong, we do a lot of damage too.
Price controls and transactions costs are in the good part of that 96%, though.
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I think his analysis is mostly correct.
But, I think this recent post by @denlillaapan also highlights another problem with economists. They tend to have a view of the world where people are just "maximally rational consumers", and ignore a lot of non-consumptive factors like human dignity, identity, pride, heritage, religion, morality, etc.
In a world where the political fissures are increasingly seen as moral and existential, it's not surprising that this group of experts that tends to ignore moral arguments is falling out of favor.
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I’m not really familiar with how all the economist–politician stuff works, but I agree that the points you mentioned should be taken into account, because in the end, the economy is mostly about people.
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ignore a lot of non-consumptive factors like human dignity, identity, pride, heritage, religion, morality, etc.
Perhaps... but consider the opposite case, where economists did spout much opinion on those things. Wouldn't/couldn't/shouldn't you rightly tell them off ("wth do you know of human dignity and identity, fuckface?") and have them stay in their lane?
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Well the way I think it should enter into the economists' discourse is to moderate their opinions / orthodoxies. It isn't meant as a green light for them to spout their metaphysical opinions.
Economists should be more like, "Yeah, we have a labor shortage and immigration can help with that, but yeah we can understand why people want to preserve their historical culture." Or, "Yeah, the market is continually expanding access to a wide variety of goods and services, but yeah the fact that you have to rent everything now and can't afford to own anything feels bad man"
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feeels baaaaaad man.
Nah, feels pretty good to me

Have you tried feeling differently, browski?

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New econ policy just dropped. Everyone should change their utility function from u(x) = \ln x to u(x) = \infty. Infinite happiness from a simple change in mindset!
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amazing!
Crazy that nobody thought about that. Nobel Prize to SimpleSTacker!
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Economists’ way of thinking has fallen out of favor among the political class more broadly. The right has embraced Trump’s zero-sum worldview and lost faith in expertise generally. Many progressives have rejected economists’ fundamental focus on trade-offs and the unintended consequences of policy interventions. Both sides are down on the free market.
Unfortunately very accurate analysis.... and grounds for economists to tell both camps to go fuck themselves, further enamoring ourselves to these ideologues
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zero-sum worldview
It's globalist/keynsians with the zero-sum demand side worldview, and why that structure is set up to milk the US.
The Trump/Bessent/Hasset/Miran/Kudlow view is supply side, a rising US tide lifts all boats.
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US hegemony is the most significant factor in the US economy. With China now dominating global manufacturing and trade in commodities the US is on the defensive regarding its shrinking sphere of power projection.
The oil and gas reserves of Russia and Iran have already fallen to China and Venezuela is another crack in the wall of US global resource hegemony.
Trump appears to be retreating US sphere of influence to the Americas so will be determined to regain control over Venezuelan oil deposits. Will China allow that to happen?
These are the real economics.
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Economists are like doctors. They tell you if you eat too much bacon you'll get sick, they point out where they are right from your past behavior, and they can give you a general idea of how to improve based on past data of your diet. But they don't get their hands dirty in actually solving problems. That's where the difference is made in recovery or talking shit about it.
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Most people go to doctors for solutions to problems of their own making.
Economists could say the same.
USA doesn't make much of any value anymore except military hardware and financial services. Death and Debt.
Neoliberal financialisation and globalisation has resulted in the destruction of Americas productive economy and infrastructure. More financialisation will not fix it. The centre of productive economic activity and development has shifted- to China.
Trump is trying to maintain US global monetary hegemony- threatening to sanction any BRICS who settle trade outside of the USD- but multiple countries are already doing that...with China leading them.
The only viable option for USA is retreat- into regional hegemony over the Americas. USA cannot now fight a war of any scale without the rare earths supply China controls and has already blocked from export to any military end uses.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aeneas 4h
Speak for yourself, America—I listen to economists all the time! I suppose it just matters which ones.
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B
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