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Lock downs weren't a cost, but a down payment, so they could paper over the system with a few trillion without the velocity of people going out ... It bought down personal debt and increased household savings over years. Also served to soft launch the China decoupling and install a fake president who could eat the inflation. Completely staged by the national security state... All part of the plan.
Housing is an interesting animal, all the variables of macro and then some because of migration even within the US, local regs, and demographics. Prices have been pretty flat a few years to break the ponzi cycle, building happening, now net-negative migration. I suspect lower rates will go hand in hand with boomers downsizing and it'll remain flat for the foreseeable.
Bookmarking to watch later.
Its clear to me that today we are still seeing the reprocussions of the global lockdowns and massive fiat printing. Few people even mention this. I remember talking to my sane coworkers about the bill coming due for that obviously terrible policy over the next decade.
One reason the rulers and bankers can get away with it is because of short memories. Others include the overall ignorance of how the fiat/government and crony capitalism systems work. The other is that the blowhards just make it into a personality thing. Trump blames Biden, Biden blames Trump. The masses get focused on the players and not the game. The masses are like fans of pro-wrestling that believe it's all real.
I'm not sure how it breaks but the farse seems unsustainable to me. The problem to me seems that the idea of socialism seems to have more legs with younger people than the real path forward. Reflecting state monopoly and embracing freedom, liberty, and responsibility.
Housing Crash FalloutHousing Crash Fallout
At least in California the supply of homes has never recovered. My friends in the real-estate market tell me that even with a net decrease in migration in California we have a housing shortage which drives prices up. Prices that are already inflated due to monetary policy.
California has insane regulations and oppressive permitting for home builders as well as commercial builders. This is across the state but worse in the large metros. It's a big reason many are leaving the costal cities to live in smaller interior cities in the state. Which is driving up costs there as well.
There is a lot of debate about what will happen if interest rates are cut. It will result in more houses going on the market but it won't magically make more housing appear. But it could help as many people that are empty nesters are sitting on their big houses because it would be stupid to sell now.