The one thing that makes me incredibly bearish w/ Bitcoin
632 sats \ 17 comments \ @Jonathan_Adly 13 Feb 2023 bitcoin
Observing other people talk about money makes me become very bearish on the future in general, and Bitcoin specifically. (I don’t participate except when asked). It is incredible how broken their mind is with a prevailing attitude of extreme short-time preference and laziness.
Even the smart ones who can see this - they immediately and intuitively gravitate toward “how can I take advantage of that much dumb money?” Instead of how I can fix it.
Just an observation from all the gambling associated with the Super Bowl. A lot of people are either financially-stupid or morally bankrupt which is very depressing.
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5 sats \ 5 replies \ @mallardshead 13 Feb 2023
That's a function of bad money, not sound money.
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10 sats \ 4 replies \ @Majjin 13 Feb 2023
I actually disagree with this. I think that some people are just inherently more high time preference. Sound money will help incentivize low time preference behavior, but it definitely doesn't guarantee it. Gambling, rehypothecation, excessive borrowing, fractional reserve banking, etc will decrease but will still very much be present in a Bitcoin standard.
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5 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 14 Feb 2023
People get really hung up on gambling for some reason. Of course it is not wise financial management, but the people who do it are just consuming a leisure good. They are not doing anything different than people who enjoy going out to shows, or restaurants, or skiing, etc.
The important point is the one about incentives. Lower time preference activities are generally more socially beneficial and sound money encourages them, while promoting those who do them and demoting those who don't.
Over long periods of time sound money can generate major cultural shifts.
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Majjin 14 Feb 2023
People get really hung up on gambling for some reason. Of course it is not wise financial management, but the people who do it are just consuming a leisure good. They are not doing anything different than people who enjoy going out to shows, or restaurants, or skiing, etc.
Gambling is different from other leisurely activities for a few reasons. One is that it can be quite addictive. That addiction, just like any other addiction, can ruin lives and families. Bundled up with that is its effects on communities. You can't just build a casino in a town and expect it to not affect its character. Businesses and industries based on vice (sex, drugs, gambling) tend to attract people of low character. So I think the aversion to gambling is warranted.
The important point is the one about incentives. Lower time preference activities are generally more socially beneficial and sound money encourages them, while promoting those who do them and demoting those who don't.
Over long periods of time sound money can generate major cultural shifts.
Totally agree with this. I just think its misguided to think that sound money will cure all of societies ills. Those problems stem from our nature and will always be with us until an act of God changes that.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 14 Feb 2023
You can't just build a casino in a town and expect it to not affect its character. Businesses and industries based on vice (sex, drugs, gambling) tend to attract people of low character.
I was mainly thinking about sports betting, since that's what the post referenced, and that's generally done online. I feel like you could make the same criticism of sporting events and concerts, but those aren't stigmatized the same way as gambling and casinos.
As to the addictiveness, I don't know that it's that much worse than other hobbies. My parents, for instance, keep buying vehicles they don't need, but they would never lose a hundred grand gambling.
This all ties into your point about high and low time preference people. High time preference people will make financial decisions that low time preference people think are wasteful, but the specifics of their spending just have to do with their consumer preferences.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Majjin 14 Feb 2023
Ah I missed the part about sports betting. There are degrees on "badness" when it comes to gambling. I think that sports betting may be less bad than a casino (although I could wrong about that). A poker game with your friends where the most you lose is 5 bucks is definitely better than both.
As to the addictiveness, I don't know that it's that much worse than other hobbies. My parents, for instance, keep buying vehicles they don't need, but they would never lose a hundred grand gambling.
It depends on how negatively its affecting the person's life and how many people tend to get addicted to it. I know there's whole sectors of counseling and mental health dedicated to gambling addiction. Also, a gambling addiction can be life wrecking. Your parents are probably not using their money in the most wise manner, but the car purchases not destroying their relationships (I hope!).
High time preference people will make financial decisions that low time preference people think are wasteful, but the specifics of their spending just have to do with their consumer preferences.
This is absolutely correct. What I'm trying to get across is that while you can overdo anything, but gambling has a tendency to be come a problem much easier than other things.
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26 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 13 Feb 2023
Most need to learn from touching the hot stove. It's just reality. It shouldn't make you bearish on Bitcoin. Hyperbitcoinization, if it happens, is going to take a lot longer than most people think. It doesn't mean bitcoin is failing or you should be bearish on it, it just means inertia is powerful and it will take extreme force to push people off their current course.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Brunswick 14 Feb 2023
When it happens
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 14 Feb 2023
Tend to agree but I could also see a situation where fiat is still used as the day to day medium of exchange currency but we operate on a bitcoin standard ala the gold standard where fiat issuance is kept in check by needing to be backed by bitcoin. This wouldn't be a permanent solution of course as governments would screw it up but they could probably squeeze another 50 years out doing this.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Brunswick 14 Feb 2023
Agreed, the dollar will continue to be the world currency for most of our lives. I only pray our children will reject it and move on from military script
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @nerd2ninja 13 Feb 2023
Don't look to the financially privileged. Here's something to make you bullish again: https://www.builtwithbitcoin.org/
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @muteness11 14 Feb 2023
There is a segment of Bitcoiners who believe so but you just can not generalise it to every Bitcoiner
another thing is, individual actions are lead by fear or greed and self interest (being greedy) plays a role in BTC adoption ... we only need to be humans to have that play out :)
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @01xCc 13 Feb 2023
вы все еще изучаете деньги??? думаю вам стоит побыстрее стать умным... как вы будите учить новорожденных??? все заного???Несмеши... это так не работает... в моей пещере осталось очень мало нефти... а продовать тебе за печатанные бумаги не очень хочется... давай договоримся... и биткоин будет и жить станет проще... биткоин заставит всех договориться... как не крути...
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @equilibriumbtc 13 Feb 2023
The urge to make a quick buck can motivate people to do really stupid things. This is especially true relating to gambling as you've mentioned.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @IHL 13 Feb 2023
I get what you are saying. I think it just means it'll take a lot longer than some people project. For example, I'm not onboard with $1,000,000 by 2030 a la Cathie Wood at ARK.
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11 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 13 Feb 2023
Hard to say. It is likely to be choppy all decade as we battle bouts of inflation and disinflation and central banks over correct to both. I think it is quite feasible we hit 1M by 2030 but unlikely we stay there. To stay at 1M or above we would need "crypto" to be pretty much dead, or at least relegated to a very small niche asset class, normies to have lost faith in central banks to fix the problem and for governments to at least not be hostile to bitcoin.
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1 sat \ 0 replies \ @IHL 13 Feb 2023
I definitely think it is possible but if it averaged 250k over the course of the year 2030 I wouldn't be surprised. I guess I'm just making sure I'm not in a position where any of my plans depend on a more bullish scenario.
My projections have literally zero impact on my stacking anyway. I just dollar cost average every single day and then buy some non-kyc sats a couple times a month.
As long as cRypTo is still going through hype cycles I will continue to expect 75%+ drawdowns in the BTC price. If those pump cycles stop then I'll start to get more near term bullish.
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