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I believe bitcoiners are generally wishing for #2, where people adopt bitcoin and ditch fiat.
Really?
Then why do I still see the "$" symbol at all of the Bitcoin conferences? Even Bitcoiners constantly use the words, "$x,xxx amount worth of Bitcoin", instead of using Sats as their base terminology?
Why are Bitcoiners cheering and advertising fiat credit/debit cards?
Why are we almost two decades into this "revolution", and there is still no credible threat to the fiat system because of Bitcoin's existence?
The Bitcoin narratives of the past decade are starting to sound silly. It has become an "investment" in the eyes of 99% of the Bitcoin community, and for 100% of the normies.
Bitcoiners generally claim to believe the dollar has been hyper-inflated, and yet they continue to use it, happily. It Bitcoiners aren't making the switch today, what makes you think they ever will?
Bitcoin is failing, and not even hyper-inflation in fiat-land will be able to save it at this point.
For Bitcoin to replace Fiat, it'd have to first integrate with Fiat, then gradually replace it. What do I mean?
The Fiat system has been entrenched in the nerves that run the world, which is "trade, manufacturing, labour," etc, and this has been so for decades, if not centuries.
To oust such a financial system that has been deeply intertwined with human life, especially given the fact that there are powerful people who will go all out to defend this system because of the benefits they get from it, then the only way for Bitcoin to replace Fiat as money and not just be a savings machine is to integrate Bitcoin into the fiat system.
Check out Fiat channels, and you may understand what I mean.
Here: https://standardsats.github.io/ and here; https://github.com/standardsats/fiat-channels-rfc
Yes, I understand that revolutions are contentious because they challenge deeply entrenched systems.
That's why revolutionists do what they do on principle, and on faith. They know the odds are against them, yet they move forward anyway.
Many revolutions, in history, have succeeded against impossible odds. Many have not.
Within the Bitcoin community, there simply is no revolution against fiat. Bitcoiners have nothing more than talking points and narratives. But they DO NOT live what they preach. They love to preach how bad fiat is on shows like Simply Bitcoin, right before pitching a fiat-focused ad from Fold, or spending an hour focused on NGU garbage.
I understand that we aren't going to upend the fiat system over a short period of time. But what I do not understand is why we aren't building more Bitcoin circular economies. Why we aren't building new communities together where Bitcoin is the monetary blood for trade. Why are we, as Bitcoiners, accepting fiat as a "necessary evil"?
You are describing to me why the world isn't moving to a Bitcoin Standard. But I'm asking, "Why aren't Bitcoiners moving to a Bitcoin standard?". See the difference?
BTW, I have visited Madiera, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Roatan etc..... I have spent a lot of Bitcoin at hundreds of vendors. I know there are some places trying to work on this problem. But where is the revolutionary spirit within the US and Europe? Where are the people building communities? Where are the Bitcoiners who are actually trying to use Bitcoin as money? Because if we aren't doing it.... what makes us think the rest of the world EVER will? It will remain nothing more than an "investment" if there aren't brave people who stand up and fight. The idea of a "peaceful revolution" in Bitcoin is just a cope.
I thought bitcoiners were supposed to have low time preference. Why would I expect a revolution of this magnitude to take less than 20 years?
Adoption and use are clearly growing, not shrinking. "Making the switch" doesn't have to be a complete binary. There's plenty of room to do more business in bitcoin.
Growing interest in using bitcoin for SoV is a very odd sign of failure, since part of the pitch is that it's the best savings technology ever.
There are two very different to-the-Moon scenarios
I believe bitcoiners are generally wishing for #2, where people adopt bitcoin and ditch fiat.