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In intrigued by your idea that the goal is actually to drive rich people out of the state. I think the main reason there might be getting rid of competition -- maybe the bureaucrats and politicians in CA feel threatened by tech billionaires, and so rather than losing to them in politics, they are just trying to force them out of the state.
I find it less plausible that the backers of this bill are able to accurately predict the economic outcomes of this bill.
In the end, this will just become a boon to CPAs who will devise all sorts of schemes to reduce / eliminate "gains"
The issue that the lawmakers have (besides being commies) is that these sorts of simplistic ideas are full of all types of loopholes they never envisioned....and generally high dollar private CPAs are smarter than dumb lawmaker staff....
There is another potential here: The goal is to drive out the wealthy....they know they are going to get $0 from this scheme but they have some secondary goal of forcing mega wealthy to declare their domicile in a different state for other purposes (ie. exit tax, forced sales of existing assets, etc)