I think it is most likely under any technical design for nostr to end up at 3.
It seems that no matter which built-in economic incentives we create for many players to run relays, there will always be capital-rich player that is willing to provide everything for free until competition dies. That's how Amazon and others keep winning.
Given that, what's left is that the core design allows me to have all my data saved, backed up, moved etc. That means I can use whatever big (free) player there is, until it starts misbehaving. Then I can switch.
Might that be enough to make nostr different?
It certainly makes nostr different. The way I've been thinking about it is that nostr isn't so much decentralized as it is less centralized. Less centralized is still a big deal as it changes incentives a lot. Does it change them enough? Will some killer app or experience emerge as result? Will the average internet user pay the switching costs? We'll see.
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