“New article from [Lopp] that introduces a new tool, the Bitcoin Confirmation Risk Calculator. By providing it a percentage of hashrate a pool has, it tells you the likelihood the pool can successfully execute a reorg.

For example, with 35% of the hashrate, Foundry has a 73% chance of successfully executing a reorg for a block with 1 confirmation.

For a block with 6 confirmations, it has a 28% chance!! That is so wild to me, I thought the percentage would be much lower.”

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