The big ideas that are going to drive 2026

A new year, a new set of lines on charts swinging up and down wildly to keep an eye on.

Even though certain things that were top of mind for markets this year will stay on the front burner next year — namely, AI — we’re at a different chapter in the story. Here’s what’s on our mind heading into 2026.

Two ETFs that track regional banks and business development companies — KRE and BIZD, respectively — have charted different courses in 2025: the former flying and the latter sliding. If this is still the golden age of private credit, then why does the stock performance of those who provide it look so tarnished? Conversely, if US regional banks are hitting 52-week highs, how worried can we be about the domestic economy?

Gold is the best-trending asset in financial markets. The shiny metal hasn’t traded below its 200-day moving average since November 2023. And bitcoin, which has been called “digital gold,” is behaving the opposite of gold, trading 20% below its 200-day moving average. The ratio of bitcoin to gold hit its 2025 high the session after the inauguration, and fell calamitously since. Will this hold?

Will Corporate America’s AI adoption justify Big Tech’s massive capital spending? AI capex is both offensive — a bid to create new revenue streams and enable products that don’t exist — but also defensive, made by tech behemoths trying to ensure their existing dominant positions don’t get swept away by the tide of this new technology. Surveys on Corporate America’s utilization of AI are all over the map.

But that is far from all.

The Takeaway

To borrow lines from epic films, sentiment surrounding AI is getting a little less “if you build it, they will come” and a little more “show me the money.” To that end, these are going to be the charts to watch to get a handle on the evolving AI theme, the strength of the speculative bid in markets, how some curious divergences will be remedied (or grow larger), and get a bank-shot read on how the US economy is doing.