Truck sales are weak because fleets don’t trust demand or credit conditions, but labor supply is quietly tightening at the same time. The recent rule changes around non domiciled CDLs matter here. By narrowing eligibility and pushing enforcement even amid legal uncertainty, thousands of drivers and potentially far more over time are being forced out of the industry. That doesn’t show up immediately as higher sales or higher wages. It shows up as hesitation. Carriers delay decisions because the operating environment just got less predictable.

Cyclical Weakness Meets Policy Driven Friction

On the cyclical side, freight demand cooled after the post COVID boom, rates fell, and credit tightened. That alone explains a lot of the collapse in truck orders. But policy is now adding friction at exactly the wrong moment. Pulling drivers out of the labor pool doesn’t revive freight demand; it raises uncertainty around capacity, compliance, and costs. Fleets are left asking whether they’ll have the drivers they need 6 months from now, what wages will look like, and whether financing even makes sense if utilization stays low. When business confidence is already fragile, that kind of uncertainty freezes capital spending.

Where This Puts Us In The Chain

Freight usually weakens first, then credit, then labor. We’re in the uncomfortable middle. Demand is soft, credit is restrictive, and labor policy is adding stress instead of relief. The result isn’t a clean recession signal yet, services are still carrying the broader economy but it is a setup for delayed pain. If demand doesn’t recover, carriers won’t order trucks. If carriers don’t order, manufacturers cut back. If labor availability tightens while volumes stay weak, margins get squeezed and layoffs follow. That’s how a slow grind turns into a sharper downturn.

My View

This isn’t just about trucks. It’s about confidence. The freight economy runs on long dated decisions in financing, hiring, equipment and routes. When demand weakens and policy introduces uncertainty around labor at the same time, businesses choose caution. That’s why this signal matters. Not because it guarantees a recession tomorrow, but because it shows an economy where growth is losing its footing and policy choices are amplifying stress instead of cushioning it.