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Thanks for sharing but I often question models that have such a high CAGR. What if bitcoin falls to 3% CAGAR for the next ten years then this and all the bitcoin treasury company models are broken
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- You could just plug in that more conservative number
- This is answering the question "If bitcoin keeps doing what it's been doing..."
All models are wrong. Some are useful. I think these are useful in informing our expectations.
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Cute formula I came up with for estimating how long it takes you to retire when saving in bitcoin, expressed as a function of your savings rate:
N = - log(S) / log(1 + A)
Where,
N = Number of years until retirement
S = Savings rate (your savings divided by post-tax income)
A = Expected appreciation of assets (inflation adjusted)
Example: If you save 30% of your income to buy bitcoin which appreciates at 20% PA, then the formula predicts it would take ~6.6 years to retire.
Assumptions: No hedonic adjustment, cap gains not factored in, assumes you're starting from 0, bitcoin grows with no volatility, etc. In other words, it's retarded, as all price models invariably are.
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