Cuba occupies a pivotal position on the geopolitical chessboard as a long standing ideological and economic ally of Venezuela, embedded within a broader anti U.S. alignment alongside Russia, China, and Iran. Within this axis, Cuba functions as a strategic foothold in the Western Hemisphere. Russia maintains security ties and potential intelligence infrastructure on the island to project influence close to U.S. shores, while China expands its regional footprint through economic investments and alleged intelligence facilities aimed at counterbalancing American dominance.

In the context of Venezuela’s crisis, particularly following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, Cuba stands to lose a critical pillar of support, most notably subsidized Venezuelan oil that has sustained its economy through the long running oil for doctors barter arrangement. The loss of this lifeline, coming amid Cuba’s own severe shortages, could accelerate internal instability and fuel speculation about whether Washington may seek to dismantle the remaining communist strongholds in the region.

For Russia and China, Cuba represents a useful proxy in challenging U.S. hegemony. Russia through military cooperation and arms relationships that signal power projection, and China through debt driven diplomacy and infrastructure projects that secure access to markets and resources. Yet both countries have increasingly constrained their direct support for Venezuela due to their own pressures. Russia from the war in Ukraine, and China from economic slowdowns leaving Cuba more exposed and isolated than before.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly aligned within this framework, positioning himself as a staunch defender of the Maduro regime and of socialist solidarity. He has condemned U.S. actions as state terrorism and a criminal attack, calling for international backlash while tightening ties with Russia and China to preserve Cuba’s revolutionary posture against what he frames as imperial aggression. That stance, however, carries growing risk, potentially inviting further U.S. sanctions or strategic encirclement in a post Maduro regional order.