the state breakup will either never happen or be VERY ugly and messy
Yes, but I still think that's the best case scenario.
just a few years or maybe a decade behind
I do see this changing trajectory. Just as a microcosm, many middle America states have reversed course on the public school trans insanity and never went as far as California.
California is now widely seen as a policy failure and as a result it's no longer acting as the object of imitation. This changed a while ago in the Midwest because of how successful Mitch Daniels was in Indiana. The neighboring states (Illinois excepted) have sought to imitate, or at least pay lip service, to that approach.
Yes, but I still think that's the best case scenario.
I do see this changing trajectory. Just as a microcosm, many middle America states have reversed course on the public school trans insanity and never went as far as California.
California is now widely seen as a policy failure and as a result it's no longer acting as the object of imitation. This changed a while ago in the Midwest because of how successful Mitch Daniels was in Indiana. The neighboring states (Illinois excepted) have sought to imitate, or at least pay lip service, to that approach.