ETFs continue to see strong inflows while the derivatives market tells a different story.

Futures volume on the CME has fallen by nearly 90%, and open interest in options by more than 80%.

This shows a clear shift in institutional behavior.

Instead of seeking arbitrage, the flow is now directional.

Investors no longer want to hold neutral positions; they want to be long. This makes perfect sense from a macro perspective.

With stable interest rates and the market already pricing in cuts, the cost of holding dollars has fallen. "Carry" positions have lost attractiveness, and capital is beginning to return to scarce assets.

The same pattern appears in on-chain data.

Supply in long-term portfolios continues to rise, and implied volatility has plummeted, showing a quiet but confident market.

Less speculation, more real positioning.

Derivatives have cooled down, but spot flows show where the money wants to be.

Instead of "hedged" positions, we now have directionally long positions. And it seems that few people have realized this.