Agree that so much of real estate is non-rational and qualitative. People get very emotional when selling or buying a house.
I would also be skeptical of a prediction market if it were to be specific to individual houses. As you mention, comps absolutely matter because they take those hyper-local factors into account. Each house is unique, and the price is ultimately whatever a buyer is willing to pay.
Having a real-time macro signal for a whole city could potentially help people better understand market dynamics, but I’d agree that every house needs to be priced individually.
Agree that so much of real estate is non-rational and qualitative. People get very emotional when selling or buying a house.
I would also be skeptical of a prediction market if it were to be specific to individual houses. As you mention, comps absolutely matter because they take those hyper-local factors into account. Each house is unique, and the price is ultimately whatever a buyer is willing to pay.
Having a real-time macro signal for a whole city could potentially help people better understand market dynamics, but I’d agree that every house needs to be priced individually.