The Cyborg Era: What AI means for jobs

tl:dr: "So I expect cyborgism to last a long time - at least until ASI is so superior that a human adds negative value/gets in the way, compute is highly abundant, bottlenecks disappear, and demand for human stuff is zero - which are pretty stringent conditions."

Basically he thinks AGI making humans irrelevant is widely overstated -- thought not impossible.

"For full substitution to occur, you need the aggregate output of [humans + AGI] to be economically inferior to [AGI] alone in production.....If you model humans as utilitarian agents who only care about efficiency, then yes they become a hindrance; if you model them as demanding other things too, e.g. the process, or taste, or conferring status, then the “transaction cost” (the fact that a human took 40 hours to make it instead of a robot taking 4 seconds) is the value proposition. As my colleague Nick Swanson reminded me, “I would stop going to the Blythe Hill Tavern if there were robots behind the bar, and they’re highly efficient with the Guinness.”