Really interesting to see how quickly the spread widens during periods of stress and how long it takes to narrow.
The gap between the broader U6 (underemployment) and U3 (headline) measures is a reliable indicator because it signals the inflection points before they hit the news... are companies are preparing to hire or are they cycling toward layoffs?
Right now, the AI narrative acts as a convenient rationale for 'optimization.' While the public sees a technological shift, the reality is often a margin-protection story where existing workers are squeezed. I don't think we're seeing a full technology shock just yet, but the erosion of the labor market is visible in the hours and the roles.
I wonder if this spread would look different if the narrative was focused on skilling up the existing workforce for more meaningful work, rather than primarily signaling the threat of replacement.
Really interesting to see how quickly the spread widens during periods of stress and how long it takes to narrow.
The gap between the broader U6 (underemployment) and U3 (headline) measures is a reliable indicator because it signals the inflection points before they hit the news... are companies are preparing to hire or are they cycling toward layoffs?
Right now, the AI narrative acts as a convenient rationale for 'optimization.' While the public sees a technological shift, the reality is often a margin-protection story where existing workers are squeezed. I don't think we're seeing a full technology shock just yet, but the erosion of the labor market is visible in the hours and the roles.
I wonder if this spread would look different if the narrative was focused on skilling up the existing workforce for more meaningful work, rather than primarily signaling the threat of replacement.