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The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has a range of aircraft and weapons that could threaten American ships and airbases from 1000km or more, threatening the assumption that the US would have air superiority in a conflict over Taiwan.

The PLA’s suppliers are making fifth-generation J-20A stealth fighters at a rate of 120 a year, more than double the number the US air force buys of the nearest equivalent, the F-35. The PLA is also buying 100 units a year of the slightly less advanced J-16 fighter.

More secret is the state of its missile systems, but they became highly visible in the conflict between India and Pakistan last year, when a Chinese PL-15 missile supplied to the Pakistan air force shot down an Indian French-built Rafale jet from, it was claimed, 200km away.

Both the PL-15 and another air-to-air missile, the PL-17, have longer ranges than anything produced by the US, Russia or Europe, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the security think tank.

“The PLA now fields a range of capabilities that can threaten US air force aerial refuelling tankers, US navy carrier groups and forward airbases at 1000km or more,” it said. “These include thousands of long-range ground-based, air-launched and maritime ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range ground-based surface-to-air missiles and long-range air-to-air weapons carried by hundreds of advanced fifth-generation fighters.”

The modernisation of the PLA has been one of President Xi Jinping's keynote policies. The PLA, which long operated under a Mao-era doctrine of strength through numbers alone, realised it had to change after the speed of America's initial victory in the 2003 Iraq war.

The RUSI report said: "US-led Western forces may still be able to win localised and temporary windows of air superiority in a potential conflict by leveraging greater operational experience. However, current Chinese capability growth is sufficiently impressive and rapid that the traditional Western airpower edge is no longer guaranteed."

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All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.

Pretend to be weak, so your enemy may grow arrogant.

Sun Tzu

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