Disclaimer:Disclaimer:
Don’t be a degen and waste sats like me.Don’t be a degen and waste sats like me.
BUT!!
If you have an appetite for risk and want to grow your stack you can trade on LN Markets.
I do this for the reasons below.
- The LN Markets team has built a tremendous trading platform only using lightning. I want to support the platform and use lightning every day (why I am addicted to SN)
- As the price rises you can stack moar sats with the sat stash you have. Plus you know your sat stack is increasing with every price pump. So not only are you feeling richer in fiat terms but also in sat terms
- As the price falls you can catch a falling knife and play the “when is the bottom in”
- I am not risk adverse. I trade on sats I can afford to lose. I zapped and spent way more sats on SN than I have traded on LN markets
- It takes the edge off on FOMO.
The Strategy:The Strategy:
It’s quite simple I enter a trade every day. With the following parameters
- I do a modest position size.
- If I feel bearish I do $15
- If I feel bullish I do $150 to $200
- Then I set it to 10x leverage
- Then I set the take profits at 25% and the stop loss at 8%
- I market buy
I let the trades run for as long as possible. Once the price moves up I move the stop losses up accordingly to preserve capital.
If we get a massive pump before my take profits get triggered I let the trade just run
I never do puts or shorts! I AM FORVER LONG PERMABULL
Progres to dateProgres to date
I only got 22 running trades. I had a lot more open but when the bitcoin price dips my stop losses hit.
My longest run trade goes back to 2024:My longest run trade goes back to 2024:
Summary of all my running tradesSummary of all my running trades
My overall performance on LN marketsMy overall performance on LN markets
Exit Strategy:Exit Strategy:
Not sure if I have one. I was thinking of doing this until bitcoin hits $1M per coin in fiat but I’m not sure if that is prudent. I could get rugged and LN markets can go down at any second but I am comfortable with that risk. I have fun doing this and it takes the edge off of FOMOing in
Thanks to @Aardvark for sharing his option wheel strategy. I been doing this for quite sometime vark inspired me to share!
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: 70k
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Volatility?
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Yes
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: 😁
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: 40
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Let’s Go
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Daylight
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Into the Chop
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Ready
The development team fixed the bug.
I am sooo back!
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Steady
Welp yesterday trade and today’s trade did not happen. Found a silly bug
Bug confirmed!
Whoa LN Markets did a complete redesign:
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Wow
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Finally
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Finally
What's happening bro 👀 all those longs at 66k coming in ...... rubs hands 🤑🤑🤑
Long term view: Bearish
Take these gains when you can
Traders love the vol
I would if I was using more capital. since these are really cheap trades I am just going to let them run
Oops the danger of using more capital 😬
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Hmmm
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Extremely Bored
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Bored
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Bored
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
How we doing bro? That dump to 65K hit you?
Really tough to say what the outlook is, im thinking 58K gang this year at some point
I wouldn't advise shorting it but then I wouldn't long it
As a guess the 65K could be a local starting point to say 69K but by the time you account for the spread it's a tough one
Down and out!! haha this chop has been brutal but I put these in place for when the pump does come.
So it’s been a lot of short term pain and bleeding of sats.
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Ahhhhh
Two more stop losses hit!
Loss: 6,157 sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Ugh
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Bored
The stop loss monster is back
Loss: 15,231 sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Really?
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Worried
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Bored
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
I don't quite understand. Is BTC/USD the only trade on this thing??? Why even bother
It’s not settled in USD. USD is the price oracle to settle trades in sats.
You can’t use USD it’s all BTC
Two more stop losses hit
Loss: 5,914 Sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Tired
fixed it for ya
Haha gotta wait and see 👀 but in the short term yes! Massive shrinkage
Stop loss hit:
Net loss: 121 sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Worried
Gonna replicate this but with some adjustments:
Nice set up!
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
The recent pullback hit some moved up stop losses:
Profit: 6,927 sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Worried
Good to see the trading is continuing 🙌
Was the 74K pump obvious it was gonna pull back to 69K?
I think so, the sentiment is we're still on track for 58K gang
So these are dead cat bounces
And as Saylor says....
Traders love the vol 🤣🤣🤣
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Happy
After getting washed out with the big dump I am back up with 30 open trades
Plus shot out to the Ln Markets team they credited my account for the missing ln address payment going to ssh in and see what happened to it.
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Working with LN markets tech support one of my deposits didn’t show up in my account using ln address
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Annoyed
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Might adjust my stop losses and take profit targets soon hmmm
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Stop loss hit
Loss: 3,058
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Fearless
Amount: $10
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: cautious
Stop loss hit
Loss: 2,500 sats
Right when I got some profits
Profit: 3,476
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10
Sentiment: Into the chop
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Hmmm
Amount: $35
Degen rate: 10
Sentiment: mix it up
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Finally
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: When?
LN markets is fun. Don’t use it often but once and awhile I will login and get a couple thousand sats and use some ridiculous amount of leverage. Usually get liquidated but have hit my take profit a couple times.
Yeah I just use it for fun for the most part.
Great service for more risk or risk mitigation (hedging).
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Consistency
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: phew
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Bear
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Stack
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Got it in
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Back to Basics
Another painful drawdown. 11 positions hit stop loss
Loss: 48,397 sats
Back at it:
Amount: $25
Degen rate: 10x
Sentiment: Resilience
More stop loss pain
Loss: 5,462 sats
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: UGHHHHH
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Basics
My 60x leverage trade got stopped out
Loss: 149 sats
Amount: $50
Degen rate: 20x
Sentiment: Bored
Amount: $10
Degen Rate: 60x
Sentiment: LOL x2
Amount: $5
Degen rate: 50x
Sentiment: LOL
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Late
Amount: $10
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Scared
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Anxious
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Up
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $50
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: We back?
Amount: $15
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: …..
Amount: $10
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Scared
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Survival
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Reload
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: reloaded
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Deposit
Another day another stop loss:
Loss: 1,988 sats
Got so bad one of my longest running trades got stopped out!
Gain: 1,460
Back at it
Amount: $100
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: missed the pump
More pain. 4 more stop losses hit
Loss: 34,643
But we continue on!
Stop lossed again
Loss: 8,082
back at it
Amount: $150
Degen Rate: 5x
Sentiment: Annoyance
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: business as usual
Amount: $30
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Ugh
Another day another liquidation :
A loss of
7,490 sats.
But we get back into it
Amount: $50
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Wounded
More rekt
Loses: 14,854 sats
But the trade never dies!
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 5x
Sentiment: falling knife
REKT!!!
Total sats lost: 70,932! Pain
But back at it!!
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: resilient
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Business as Usual
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Let’s STACK
Amount: $50
Degen Rate: 8x
Sentiment: Good
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 3x
Sentiment: Pissed
Amount: $150
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Back on my BS
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 2x
Sentiment: Weak
More stop losses. This dump is brutal!
But we WILL NEVER BREAK
Amount: $150
Degen Rate: 5x
Sentiment: DONT STOP BELIEVING!!
More trades got stopped out! Took a 6k sat loss! Ouch
But we enter into to the fray again
Amount: $75
Degen Rate: 5x
Sentiment: Good
Another dip almost wiped me out! Hahaha. A few more of my trades closed some in profit others In a tiny loss
But a new day a new trade!
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Scared!
Last night’s dump closed a lot of my trades in profit got about 7k to 10k in sats
So today we open a new trade
Amount: $150
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: BTFD
Yup another one
Amount: $55
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: Hopeful
Another day another position!
Amount: $25
Degen Rate: 10x
Sentiment: cautious
Guess the server was down! This morning but none the less got the trade in!
And we are down today
Rugged? We shall see 👀
Back at it!
Amount: $100
Degen rate: 10x
Sentiment: bullish
Recent pullback could have room to run and not get liquidated
Another day another trade!!
Amount: $75
Degen rate: 10x leverage
Sentiment: medium
Looking at the historical funding rates on LNM, it seems that if you held a long position your cost is roughly 10% a year... which is about 2x as high as say a Robinhood, but on par with a Fidelity
For some periods, like recently where sentiment is very bearish, funding is negative and you actually get a yield to have a long open.
Most of the time though you pay to have a long open, but over time, its roughly equivalent to borrowing fiat at 10% to buy Bitcoin with.
So the only thesis you need is that Bitcoin grows at >10% a year and can simply not trade it, set and forget a long.
You might even use it to "borrow" against your Bitcoin at 10% to cover life expenses, eg sell some Bitcoin, then buy an equivalent amount back on LNM.
Volatility however is how you get "chopped" up through liquidation. Price dumps, you get liquidated, it bounces and you buy back higher to chase. You need very low leverage to mitigate that... and ideally only adjust your positions when the market is boring.
The trade-off for low leverage ofc is greater impact of rug pull / technical risk of LNM itself. Afaik, they back their books with Bitmex, and price calculation is an average of exchanges that have API's that can break. Glitches further exacerbates volatility risk.
Thanks for this in-depth review. During the October dump LN markets ran into some issues. I’m not sure how deep the liquidity is but a few traders were pissed at the team
This is definitely true. The dumps and the chop crush this strategy.
True but this is boring. Idle hands are the devils playground! Using LN makes life worth living!!
I think I recall seeing that the October thing was an exchange API breakage, something external reported the price incorrectly which caused their engine to mis-price and liquidate people.
Very similar to what broke some stableshitcoin on exchanges that started the cascade in the first place.
Liquidity shouldn't be an issue since Bitmex is the ultimate market maker, may just want to use slugs to avoid slippage if you go big.
lol very true, until the price starts to run and you log in to check and see a whole bunch of free sats... or when there's blood in the streets and you log in and see you're not liquified
Exactly I need that rush when the price action is so dull
It must be exhilarating to have play money and just do something for the hell of it! We all need to live!
I was going to give LN Markets a try but I got a "Your country is not allowed to us LN Markets" when trying to register.
It would appear to be by IP Address Range, as I was trying LNURL register.
Does anyone know what countries they are blocking?
I think just USA.
Good set up but I would reduce leverage to as low as possible 10x is crazy talk
Yeah 10x to the down side sucks for sure. But my risk is low due to using extremely small capital. Now if I was doing 100k or 1M sat positions I would def lower the leverage ratio
You know some idiot definitely not me 🤐 put on a long at 125k 🫣 luckily that idiot had minimum leverage so margin call is 70k, the idiot is been stuck in it for months, definitely not me 🤣🤣
Hahaha
Two questions:
No kyc, use ln login (phoenix works great)
No lending
long or short or calls and puts but thats for extreme psycho degens
Yeah I did one options contract then stopped.
I just remembered I made a trade on lnmarkets a couple months ago and forgot all about it. Haha. I have to log in and see if I got liquidated before it went back up.
That's definitely interesting. I've never used leverage but it seems like you have a pretty good setup that works for you. So far, the wheel has been enough to keep me entertained, but I don't hate the idea. I'll bookmark this for later.