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A very good article, thank you. You had some good insights and it was a good read.

You do make the point that Strategy is bulletproof, but in some ways it fells a bit too focused on "treasury companies" -- a bit like normies conflate "crypto" and bitcoin.

Your failure modes:

"In the absence of that — say, nobody buys the treasury company issuances, and financial capital flows somewhere else; money printing stops; interest rates on (safer?) government securities shoot up, etc — I don’t see how Strategy’s mNAV doesn’t just collapse back down to 1."

.....>I assume you mean this as a temporary scenario, and not a permanent state? In what (fiat) universe would money printing stop, and government bond rates go up?

"If fund managers or treasury departments or family offices routinely stack bitcoin instead of various Strategy products (or securities of Strategy copy-cats, as the case may be in different parts of the world), the primary reason for bitcoin treasury companies go away."

.....>Yes, this will happen eventually. Is it going to happen in 5 or 10 years?? Likely not. It might happen in 20 years, or 50. The gold standard ended in 1913. People thought fiat would die in 1971 -- I think Strategy has many decades to run a Bitcoin/Fiat carry trade.

My projection, which I didn't get into in that article, is that it happens in a few years, conditional on tradfi grasping bitcoin.
Which is what they have to do to answer the very simple question before investing in the Strategy products: where does the yield come from?

Once they get that, all these investment mandates and regulatory barriers will come crashing down very fast and Strategy turns into an ETF with 1:1 bitcoin exposure

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You just might be right:
If you don't understand bitcoin, you won't buy Strategy's financial products.
If you do understand bitcoin, you will just buy bitcoin.

Maybe...but STRC is $3 billion and growing.

I don't think banks, insurance, and tradfi in general will understand bitcoin any time soon, when only .001% of the population does. Even if they did, they can't meet short term fiat liabilities with bitcoin as a treasury asset. Yes they need some bitcoin, but they would need a small percentage for growth, and a large percentage of more stable assets to meet shorter term obligations. That is, in today's fiat world, not in a bitcoin future.

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