I think it's that final point, plus some group who makes the switch quickly after activation.

Your logic seems right that if this distribution persists for very long then the minority will lose and become irrelevant.

Undisciplined

Sure, but what I'm getting at is that there is a pretty narrow window when this is relevant.

In the moment of a split, miners have to make a decision about this. If >51% hashrate is on the non-BIP-110 side, every block they find means they will have to sacrifice more block rewards and fees in order to accommodate the intolerant minority, right?

Now, if the argument is that miners will appease the intolerant minority 

 activation and signal that they will mine BIP 110 blocks, then perhaps you have a point.

bitcoin

The asymmetric advantage of a BIP-110 fork

Scoresby

Sure, but what I'm getting at is that there is a pretty narrow window when this is relevant.

In the moment of a split, miners have to make a decision about this. If >51% hashrate is on the non-BIP-110 side, every block they find means they will have to sacrifice more block rewards and fees in order to accommodate the intolerant minority, right?

Now, if the argument is that miners will appease the intolerant minority *before* activation and signal that they will mine BIP 110 blocks, then perhaps you have a point.