The Supreme Court still hasn’t released its opinion in the high-stakes case over Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs (Learning Resources v. Trump). The Court has an opinion-release scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, but it doesn’t announce which cases will drop that day. So the tariff ruling could land then… or not.
Why this matters: tariffs aren’t just “trade policy” here. They're a core lever for the administration’s negotiation posture. If SCOTUS says IEEPA doesn’t authorize these tariffs (or sharply limits that authority), the administration likely has to rebuild the program using other statutes, which usually means slower process, narrower tools, and new legal/market uncertainty.
The market-moving part isn’t only legal vs illegal. It’s the remedy:
• If the Court invalidates the program but limits relief (e.g., prospective-only), disruption could be contained.
• If refund liability is broad, the numbers get big fast. Reuters has reported tariff refund exposure over $133.5B, and importers are bracing for a potential ~$150B refund fight depending on how the ruling is written.
Bottom line: this is a macro uncertainty event because it can change both (1) the executive’s tariff toolkit and (2) the status of money already collected. The decision could come as early as Jan. 20, but timing is still uncertain.
Sources
https://www.reuters.com/world/supreme-court-plans-rulings-january-20-with-trumps-tariffs-still-undecided-2026-01-16/
(SCOTUS sets Jan 20 opinion day; tariffs decision still pending; Court won’t say which cases)
https://www.supremecourt.gov/
(Court notice: “may announce opinions” Jan 20)
https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/learning-resources-inc-v-trump/
(Case page: Learning Resources v. Trump — the IEEPA tariffs case)
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-tariffs-that-are-risk-court-ordered-refunds-exceed-1335-billion-2026-01-06/
(Reuters: refund exposure reported > $133.5B)
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/importers-brace-150-billion-tariff-refund-fight-if-trump-loses-supreme-court-2026-01-08/
(Reuters: importers/lawyers bracing for possible ~$150B refund fight)