I can't verify the Polymarket tweet but I asked Gemini about MN:
In 2026, Minnesota’s standing for the 2030 Census is significantly more precarious than it was in 2020. While the state grew by 2.4% between 2020 and 2024 (reaching roughly 5.84 million), this pace is insufficient to keep up with the explosive growth in the Sun Belt.
Current projections from Election Data Services and Esri indicate that Minnesota is "fairly certain" to lose a seat in 2030, dropping from 8 representatives to 7.
The Ranking Shift: In 2020, Minnesota held the very last seat (#435). By early 2026, models place Minnesota's 8th seat around #379 in the priority queue. This means 56 other state seats would need to be "skipped" for Minnesota to keep its eighth.
The Deficit: Based on mid-decade data, Minnesota would likely need to count approximately 51,525 more people than currently projected to retain that 8th seat.
Minnesota’s primary drag is an aging population and negative domestic migration (more people moving to other states than moving in). To avoid the loss of the 8th seat, the state is now almost entirely dependent on international immigration and high census participation to offset these trends.
Would you like to see how the specific redistricting timeline for Minnesota looks between now and 2030?
I can't verify the Polymarket tweet but I asked Gemini about MN:
In 2026, Minnesota’s standing for the 2030 Census is significantly more precarious than it was in 2020. While the state grew by 2.4% between 2020 and 2024 (reaching roughly 5.84 million), this pace is insufficient to keep up with the explosive growth in the Sun Belt.
2030 Outlook for Minnesota2030 Outlook for Minnesota
Current projections from Election Data Services and Esri indicate that Minnesota is "fairly certain" to lose a seat in 2030, dropping from 8 representatives to 7.
Internal MN Population DynamicsInternal MN Population Dynamics
Growth is highly localized, creating a "two Minnesotas" demographic split:
Key VulnerabilityKey Vulnerability
Minnesota’s primary drag is an aging population and negative domestic migration (more people moving to other states than moving in). To avoid the loss of the 8th seat, the state is now almost entirely dependent on international immigration and high census participation to offset these trends.
Would you like to see how the specific redistricting timeline for Minnesota looks between now and 2030?