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Yes, success should mean more people getting a larger share of their value from nostr than they’ve been getting from its alternatives.
That just doesn’t imply that they are using it more.
There’s a more extreme possibility too. It may be that nostr is analogous to nicotine gum/patches. In which case, the value is found mostly in reducing a bad habit.
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I do make that assumption. It is hard to measure success by how much less a tool is used than some other.
At the least, wouldn't we want to see more new users coming to nostr? They may not be doomscrolling all day like on Twitter or Instagram, but it seems like there should be more if it was succeeding.