Hey all, Brendan here.
I own bitcoin, and I also want to retire early. But I couldn't find any retirement tools online that would let me model out my entire portfolio including bitcoin.
I've been active in the FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) community for long enough to know that bitcoin is still a dirty word in a lot of the biggest FIRE forums (r/FIRE, r/FinancialIndependence, etc.). You'll see posts like "I'm 40 with $3M saved, can I FIRE?", but when people see the OP owns bitcoin, they start downvoting them and telling them to sell it.
The tools available online really reflect this divide. The go-to tools recommended in these communities all focus on index funds (which is fine), but they just completely ignore bitcoin. Then at the other extreme, you have bitcoin-only FIRE planners, which are cool but they don't let you integrate index funds with stocks/bonds.
The reality is, many of us are somewhere in between these extremes: we own stocks, but we also own bitcoin, and for us there just hasn't been a good, clean, professional tool online for retirement simulations.
So, I figured I'd go ahead and build what I couldn't find: https://www.satsfire.app/
Give it a try and please let me know what you think - I'm open to all feedback!
Cheers.
– Brendan.
This really resonates. Most people aren’t all in on one asset, and it’s kind of wild that mainstream FIRE tools still pretend bitcoin doesn’t exist. Cool to see someone actually build something practical instead of arguing about it.
Man, comments like yours get me so fired up haha. Thank you! Stoked that you like the tool, excited to keep building. Let's go
There seems to be no way to have an income between now and the start of retirement. Did I miss it?
App looks very elegant, also.
Had the same comment.
Otherwise, it's an aesthetically appealing version of an ugly spreadsheet I use for the same thing.
I changed the wording on the tool because I think it was confusing people - it now says “Retirement Start” in the field where you plug in your starting amount.
This helps clarify that it’s not asking for your current portfolio as of this moment - it’s asking what your starting amount will be when you retire, and then stress-testing that plan so you can see if you need to make any adjustments.
Thanks again for your feedback!
Thanks, that's great feedback.
Right now, the app just simulates your retirement from start to end. It's very simple, but doesn't have a pre-retirement input area (like income from now until retirement as you mentioned).
That's a great idea though, I'll definitely implement that.
Open to all ideas, please keep 'em coming. Want this to be as useful as possible.
Cool!
I played around with it and got a median failure year at 2048 and a 60% chance of market cycle survival.
I sometimes overhear people talking about FIRE but have never looked into it. I also don't plan to retire anytime soon. I like the idea of semiretirement earning some sats in work that you love doing.
Totally! There are different types of FIRE, and not all involve retiring immediately. Check out coastFIRE - it's basically the point at which you have enough saved that without saving more, you'll be able to retire. So you're still working, but you don't have to keep saving if you don't want to.
There's also baristaFIRE, leanFIRE, and more... I also just started r/satsFIRE :)
What's the difference between coastFIRE and baristaFIRE?
BaristaFIRE is specifically about switching to a part-time gig that's theoretically easier than your current job. Becoming a barista at Starbucks is sort of the classic example, but a lot of people would argue that's not actually that easy of a job and might be more stressful than a desk job sometimes.
That sort of move isn't necessarily part of a CoastFIRE plan. With CoastFIRE, you're just on cruise control with your current job, knowing even if you don't save anymore you'll still be on track to retire at your desired age.
Maybe instead of calling it baristaFIRE it should be called CafeFIRE. I wouldn't ever want to work as a barista for a starbucks, but I could see a nice life running a small cafe or shop, where high profitability isn't a huge concern.
Here's an example 30yr retirement simulation using Michael Saylor's 30% CAGR for bitcoin:
📊 Simulation Results
✅ Success: 90%
— Start: $700k
— Spend: $50k/yr
— Horizon: 30 years
— 65% BTC • 35% Stocks
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜⬜⬜🟦🟦
⬜⬜⬜⬜🟦🟦
⬜⬜⬜⬜🟦🟦
🟥🟥🟨🟩🟦🟦
🟥Ruin🟨Lean🟩Solid🟦Rich
Link to this specific simulation
Fixed a few bugs already thanks to user feedback:
Thanks all!
https://twiiit.com/satsfire_app/status/2016146161455808742
Vibe coded?