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Paul Schmelzing, for the Bank of England, showed in the epicly poorly timed year 2020, that (real) rates just go in one direction, and it's not up:
Bitcoiners say to extend your vision/horizon, Scoresby-la
Oh sure, but I prefer to see the greater trend as the work of dragons (or in this case technology).
I never could figure out how seasons worked in Song of Fire and Ice, but being a humble human, I am doomed to experience the sweep of this story on such a short time scale that all I can see is the crazy upswing.
Since all we really care about is what our friends and neighbors are doing (damn those Lannisters), it doesn't matter whether we are experiencing the winter of 1620s or 2020s. Winter still sucks when it comes.
pray it never comes on my watch! ("and now my watch begins"?)
The post industrial economy including AI, is powered by electrons.
China has a giant wall of them feeding its consumers and producers, at half the price of any other industrialised economy.
China has the huge advantage in scale and price with a massive nuclear, solar, hydro and wind based electricity power generation surplus projected for 2030 while the USA is stuck in fossil fueled redundancy and faces chronic electricity generation shortages and rolling power cuts if projected AI power consumption is ever to be achieved.
China won the trade war.
USA cannot fight a war of any scale now without the supply of refined rare earths China holds.
The neoliberal financialisation and globalisation of the last 40 years have crippled the US military industrial complex and now Chinas domination of global trade in manufactured goods and commodities poses a real threat to the USA and its hegemony over the legacy organs of financial institutional global domination.
WW3 has begun as a mercantile contest while many remain ignorant and in denial of the reality that control of supply chains is a huge strategic lever and China holds it while enjoying $1.2 Trillion trade surpluses and a globally expanding network of infrastructure including tertiary level trade payments protocols and institutions that compete with the legacy USD/petrodollar/SWIFT hegemony.
$38 trillion in debt and no balanced budget since 2001 feels like some frost in the air.
30 year yields only seem to go in one direction like snowflakes in the wind.