Got this from @Undisciplined, and threw some sats down on a few things here: https://beta.predyx.com/category/sports
Love the no-KYC. I post under my own name, so I'm not even trying to hide, but I don't want my email and phone number in yet another security hack.
Will see how it goes tomorrow when I hopefully have some sats to cash out.
There's a lot of activity today. I'm going to walk away with millions of sats, regardless of how the game turns out.
Well isn't that nice. I have decided next season I will not be betting on the 49ers so recklessly. I will buy up their shares but I am not going to try and keep their odds up and give you guys free sats. I don't mind losing the sats but the opportunity cost of not having many sats on other teams hurts.
You created the risk free rate
It was only risk free if you hedged. The 49ers had between a 3-6% chance to win the Super Bowl throughout the year. So you could hedge and capture the spread between the real probability and what I inflated it to but if you just bought No it was great value but not risk free.
I did hedge, so it was a risk-free 4-ish% over a few months.
Although, bitcoin's purchasing power tanked, so that 4% isn't what it might have been.
It's a valuable public service
Indeed being exit liquidity can be a bit deflating at times
The difference is that everyone wanted your Bills shares
Hahahaha
of all the arguments in your long-suffering endeavors to educate me about economics, this is the most powerful.
I was tempted to use polymarket but didn't want a large wad of fiat melting away for 6 months, glad there is a bitcoin native solution