This is the topic of an article in today's New York Times.

Traders at Kalshi and Polymarket are outperforming economists in predicting unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and even who will be the next nominee to lead the Fed.

And this applies to other sectors, such as predicting the quarterly results of companies like Apple or Google.

This is according to research conducted by London Business School, Yale, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Among the reasons are (1) better incentives in predictive markets and (2) reduced bias from analysis firms.

Since the forecast is made by a collective, the answer is not defined by 1 or 2 people, but by thousands of traders who set prices in predictive markets.