Most dollar commentary assumes cyclical weakness. This episode looks different.

I'm not claiming the dollar is losing reserve status. I'm claiming markets are pricing political and institutional risk into the currency.

I'm not saying growth or rate spreads don't matter — I'm saying they don't explain why the dollar is weakening while the US economy remains relatively firm.

Dollar Weakens as Markets Reprice US Political Risk — The Daily Economy

Here's the mechanism Earle describes:

• Universal tariffs, explicit talk of engineering a weaker dollar, Mar-a-Lago Accord speculation, and loose discussion of restructuring Treasury obligations have injected deep uncertainty into currency markets
• Overt pressure on the Fed — including attempts to shape future FOMC composition — raises questions about monetary independence
• Options markets now show the most expensive hedges against dollar weakness since records began in 2011
• Gold has surged above $5,000 per ounce after climbing roughly 85% over the past year — with institutional investors, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds among the largest buyers

"Investors are no longer reacting solely to interest rate differentials or growth forecasts; they are embedding a political risk premium into the currency itself." — Peter C. Earle, The Daily Economy

What distinguishes this from prior dollar weakness isn't the magnitude — it's the character. The dollar historically softened when global growth strengthened or US monetary policy eased relative to peers. Today the US economy continues to perform reasonably well, yet the dollar is underperforming nearly every major peer currency.

That disconnect is the signal.

What evidence would distinguish political risk repricing from standard rate-cycle weakness here?