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This makes me wonder if optimism / pessimism is one of the dividing lines between libertarians and socialists. I view pessimism as fundamental to anyone seeking government solutions, because it's a view that says most problems cannot be solved by the individual, but only by collectivism
Reminds me of when my best friend realized that my worldview is radically optimistic rather than cynical.
Both extremes are wrong.
The most powerful economic model is a combination of collective organisation and strategic development and free enterprise.
There are sectors and areas of development that private enterprise will not develop but which can and do benefit the overall economic strength and power projection of a nation.
Rare earths is just one example.
Chinas mixed model with the CCP directing capital into infrastructure education and strategic priorities while leaving free market competition to operate underneath that umbrella of infrastructure provision has proven its ability to outcompete the wests industrialised economies.
With AI and the post industrial economy emerging such combined use of free market and strategic planning and capital direction is even more important- the size and scale of the structures required are even larger and more complex than ever before and neither an entirely free market or a fully command economy model will not provide a full systemic complexity required.
This is why Trump is oncreasingly adopting State Capitalism...but it may be too little too late.
USA does not have the electricity power generation capacity to power the AI power consumption that is projected.
China builds nuclear power generation at 1/6th yes 1/6th the cost it takes USA to.
Chinese consumers and businesses pay less than half what US consumers and businesses pay because China has prioritised both building power generation capacity and building energy efficiency..and has been focused on this strategy for the last 20 years.
USA has focused its AI reaserch on achieving AGI- while China has focused upon more pragmatic and immediate research and development priorities that deliver productivity gains sooner.
The US industrial base is gutted after decades of outsourcing.
If the big gamble on AI rescuing the declining US empire doesn't work out it could be all over for US global hegemony and the extraordinary wealth and privilege USA has enjoyed for many decades.
I think this is a great prediction. By it's nature, AI will replace the known and the routine, so we will find our comparative advantages in the unusual.