Over the past year two parallel sets of talks have been held about ending the war in Ukraine. American-led negotiations with Russia have produced proposal after proposal but no agreement on territory or security guarantees. Meanwhile, other envoys from the Kremlin and the White House have been discussing business. Volodymyr Zelensky, citing Ukrainian intelligence, says Russia has promised deals worth $12trn to America in return for sanctions relief; one insider reckons a package has already been agreed on. In Europe fears are rising that President Donald Trump could force Ukraine into crippling concessions by June—his latest deadline for peace—to chase gold in Russia.