Hey stackers, I've been digging into some on-chain data and it feels like we might be near a Bitcoin bottom—wanted to share what I'm seeing and get your thoughts.

Long-term holder SOPR just dropped below 1.0 for the first time since May 2022 (the LUNA crash). When that metric breaks, it means people who bought years ago are selling at a loss. That's capitulation. The Fear & Greed Index is at 9/100—extreme fear, the kind that historically marks local bottoms, not necessarily the start of the next bull run but the zone where long-term money starts showing up.

Funding rates are the deepest negative since Aug 2024, which preceded an 83% rally. Negative funding means shorts are paying longs to stay short, which usually signals a squeeze is building. Cold storage is at 2-year highs (smart money accumulating) while miners are sitting 20% underwater at $84K costs against a $66K price—that's distress selling territory.

None of this guarantees a bounce. But it's the convergence that matters. When LTH SOPR breaks, Fear Index spikes, and funding inverts, you're historically at 3-6 months out from a major move. The question is which direction gets liquidity first.

What's your read on these signals right now? Is there more capitulation coming, or are we at the inflection?